Sheikh Hasina's Fall, Strained India Ties To Yunus' Struggles: How 2025 Shook Bangladesh

Bangladesh's relationship with India slipped into visible turbulence in 2025, a year scarred by political chaos, economic distress and allegations of minority persecution, triggering a tense diplomatic back-and-forth between the two neighbours. The downturn in bilateral ties followed the dramatic ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India in August last year amid massive anti-government protests. The crisis deepened this year after a tribunal sentenced her to death in for her alleged role in a deadly crackdown during the agitation.

Ties with India witness downturn as Bangladesh navigates turbulent 2025

Diplomatic strain became evident as Dhaka summoned Indian High Commissioner Pranay Verma five times over various concerns, while New Delhi called in Bangladesh's High Commissioner Reaz Hamidullah once to flag security-related issues inside Bangladesh.

The political transition from the long-standing,“India-friendly” Awami League government to a Muhammad Yunus-led interim government marked a decisive shift in Dhaka's diplomatic stance. Bangladesh's renewed engagement with Pakistan, further raised eyebrows in New Delhi and beyond.

Experts noted that Bangladesh's internal crisis was exacerbated by a lack of meaningful engagement from major global powers, leaving the Yunus-led interim government diplomatically isolated. Analysts went so far as to brand 2025 a“missing year” for Bangladesh, citing the absence of an elected government. During this period, foreign missions largely chose to engage with political parties seen as future power centres rather than the interim administration.

Former ambassador Mahfuzur Rahman told PTI that Bangladesh passed through 2025“with no clear foreign policy directive” and that“no important country engaged Dhaka with any deep thought”.

He added that,“despite signs of softness and maturity on Delhi's part to overcome the hostility in bilateral ties, Dhaka did not take the initiative or advantage to improve relations”.

"It (Dhaka) rather showed an immature attitude, visibly to appease a domestic constituency,” he said.

Rahman, who earlier served as deputy high commissioner in Islamabad, observed that Pakistan pursued active diplomacy with Bangladesh, and Dhaka responded to it,“whether knowingly or unknowingly, the impact or the course it will lead to”.

Amid prolonged instability, the South Asian nation of nearly 175 million has also witnessed an alleged drift toward religious conservatism. The closing months of 2025 saw a visible rise in anti-India forces, setting off alarm bells across the region.

Dhaka University international relations professor Imtiaz Ahmed told PTI that“state-complicity” was a decisive factor in the emergence of anti-India forces.

Security analyst and 1971 Liberation War veteran Nasir Uddin warned that Bangladesh had entered a“dangerous” geopolitical phase, particularly in its dealings with regional and global powers.

“India is repeatedly expressing its concerns, but those in power in Bangladesh without any (electoral) mandate remain indifferent, much like the Pakistani rulers in 1971,” Uddin said.

Sheikh Hasina's ouster

The July Uprising, a violent, student-led movement that toppled Hasina's government in 2024, fundamentally reshaped Bangladesh's political landscape. Yet, more than a year later, analysts say the country has shown little progress toward stability, with political violence and economic hardship continuing unabated.

Political unrest intensified after the Election Commission announced February 12, 2026, as the date for general elections. The killing of Sharif Osman Hadi, an Inqilab Mancha leader known for his anti-India rhetoric, on December 18 sparked nationwide protests and violence. Days later, another student leader, Motaleb Shikder, was shot in the head.

Veteran economist Rehman Sobhan, who taught Chief Adviser Yunus at Dhaka University over six decades ago, criticised the interim government, saying its failures had pushed Bangladesh into a“dangerous phase” where election candidates were increasingly becoming targets of violence.

The year also reportedly witnessed a surge in attacks on Hindus and Liberation War veterans. Media organisations and Sufi shrines were also targeted.

Former prime minister and BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia's fragile health remained a focal point throughout 2025. With the 80-year-old leader on a ventilator, political attention shifted to her son, Tarique Rahman, who returned from London ahead of the polls after more than 17 years in self-exile, energising BNP supporters.

With the Awami League sidelined after being barred from contesting the elections by the Yunus-led government, the BNP has emerged as the dominant political force. Jamaat-e-Islami has positioned itself as a formidable rival by aligning with smaller fringe groups.

Adding further complexity to the electoral landscape was the rise of multiple student-led political parties, including the National Citizen Party (NCP) and Inqilab Mancha, both born out of protest movements. Yunus himself was elevated to head the interim administration with backing from the Students Against Discrimination (SAD) platform. In February, a key offshoot of SAD launched the NCP.

Senior journalist Mozammel Hossain Manju cautioned that the very forces responsible for toppling the previous regime could face decline, in an apparent reference to the NCP.

On the economic front, Bangladesh endured slowing growth, soaring inflation, weak investment and rising unemployment throughout 2025, trends widely linked to the prolonged political turmoil since 2024.

In December, National Board of Revenue Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan warned that Bangladesh had slipped into a“debt trap”, with debt servicing emerging as the second-largest budgetary burden and the tax-to-GDP ratio plunging to around seven per cent from 10 per cent.

While Yunus had pledged to build a corruption-free state, recent months have seen mounting allegations of graft within the interim administration, further eroding public trust.

(With inputs from agencies)

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