403
Sorry!!
Error! We're sorry, but the page you were looking for doesn't exist.
Colombia's Peso Rally Meets A Holiday Reality Check
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Key Points
The peso stayed firm as the global dollar softened and Colombia's carry remained attractive.
Colombia's Colcap held near year-end highs, but momentum cooled as holiday liquidity thinned.
Traders face a split tape: USD/COP looks stretched on short timeframes, while equities still price a bullish 2025.
The Colombian peso opened Friday with the dollar near COP 3,723 per USD, after a late-December slide that left USD/COP pressing fresh lows in thin conditions.
The broader backdrop still favors the peso: the dollar index hovered around 97.7–97.9, near its recent lows, while Colombia's policy rate remains high at 9.25%, keeping carry demand alive even as many desks run light into year-end.
The last full local session, Wednesday December 24, showed how quickly prices can move when liquidity disappears. Set-FX reported 875 trades and about $1.17 billion in turnover, with USD/COP trading roughly 3,690 to 3,740 before finishing around 3,738.
That tape matters because it frames the current level as a continuation of a strong COP trend, not a one-off print. Technicals argue for caution, not panic.
On the four-hour chart, USD/COP is deeply oversold, with RSI around 27 and a still-negative MACD, conditions that often invite short covering.
Daily and weekly readings are less extreme but still weak, suggesting any rebound may struggle unless the pair reclaims the mid-3,700s and then the 3,780–3,820 band.
In equities, the MSCI Colcap ended December 24 at 2,081.40, inside a 2,063.85–2,081.40 range, and still close to its 52-week peak near 2,123.58.
Momentum is mixed: the weekly chart remains strong, but the daily signals point to consolidation after a powerful year. Five winners and losers from the December 24 session captured the crosscurrents.
Winners: Banco de Bogotá (+4.28%), Grupo Nutresa (+4.13%), Grupo Cibest ordinary (+3.26%), Grupo Cibest preferred (+2.13%), and Grupo Argos (+1.93%).
Losers: Grupo Bolívar (-2.72%), ISA (-1.98%), Terpel (-1.32%), Corficolombiana preferred (-1.14%), and Grupo Sura (-0.91%).
The near-term driver remains flows, not headlines. With debt-management talk and fiscal optics in the background, Colombia's market is rewarding stability and punishing uncertainty.
In the next real liquidity window, watch whether the peso's strength holds without a weaker global dollar to hide behind.
The peso stayed firm as the global dollar softened and Colombia's carry remained attractive.
Colombia's Colcap held near year-end highs, but momentum cooled as holiday liquidity thinned.
Traders face a split tape: USD/COP looks stretched on short timeframes, while equities still price a bullish 2025.
The Colombian peso opened Friday with the dollar near COP 3,723 per USD, after a late-December slide that left USD/COP pressing fresh lows in thin conditions.
The broader backdrop still favors the peso: the dollar index hovered around 97.7–97.9, near its recent lows, while Colombia's policy rate remains high at 9.25%, keeping carry demand alive even as many desks run light into year-end.
The last full local session, Wednesday December 24, showed how quickly prices can move when liquidity disappears. Set-FX reported 875 trades and about $1.17 billion in turnover, with USD/COP trading roughly 3,690 to 3,740 before finishing around 3,738.
That tape matters because it frames the current level as a continuation of a strong COP trend, not a one-off print. Technicals argue for caution, not panic.
On the four-hour chart, USD/COP is deeply oversold, with RSI around 27 and a still-negative MACD, conditions that often invite short covering.
Daily and weekly readings are less extreme but still weak, suggesting any rebound may struggle unless the pair reclaims the mid-3,700s and then the 3,780–3,820 band.
In equities, the MSCI Colcap ended December 24 at 2,081.40, inside a 2,063.85–2,081.40 range, and still close to its 52-week peak near 2,123.58.
Momentum is mixed: the weekly chart remains strong, but the daily signals point to consolidation after a powerful year. Five winners and losers from the December 24 session captured the crosscurrents.
Winners: Banco de Bogotá (+4.28%), Grupo Nutresa (+4.13%), Grupo Cibest ordinary (+3.26%), Grupo Cibest preferred (+2.13%), and Grupo Argos (+1.93%).
Losers: Grupo Bolívar (-2.72%), ISA (-1.98%), Terpel (-1.32%), Corficolombiana preferred (-1.14%), and Grupo Sura (-0.91%).
The near-term driver remains flows, not headlines. With debt-management talk and fiscal optics in the background, Colombia's market is rewarding stability and punishing uncertainty.
In the next real liquidity window, watch whether the peso's strength holds without a weaker global dollar to hide behind.
Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the
information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept
any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images,
videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information
contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright
issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.
Most popular stories
Market Research
More Story
Comments
No comment