Global Economy Briefing: December 17, 2025

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Key Points
. U.S. jobs cooled but stayed positive; wages eased; a big crude draw lowered near-term inflation risk.

. Europe held in services-led growth while factory PMIs stayed mixed; sentiment improved and inflation stayed low.

. Asia carried momentum: India's PMIs ran hot; Japan flipped to a trade surplus on stronger orders and exports.
United States
The United States printed a cleaner soft-landing mix. November payrolls rose 64k after a one-off October dip. Unemployment ticked to 4.6%.

Average hourly earnings slowed to 0.1% m/m and 3.5% y/y. Hours nudged up. October retail quality firmed (control +0.8% m/m; core +0.4%), even with flat headline sales.

PMIs stayed in expansion (manufacturing 51.8; services 52.9). Redbook rose 6.2% y/y. API reported a large crude draw (−9.3M bbl).

Net: demand is steady; price pressure keeps easing.
Europe and UK
France's manufacturing popped back above 50 (50.6), but services eased (50.2). Germany's services stayed solid (52.6) while manufacturing slipped (47.7).

Euro-area composite was 51.9; services 52.6; manufacturing 49.2. ZEW expectations improved sharply for Germany (45.8) and the bloc (33.7), though German current conditions remained weak (−81).

Italy's CPI was 1.1% y/y (−0.2% m/m). Trade showed a €4.16B surplus overall but a deficit versus the EU. The UK softened: jobless 5.1%; wages ex-bonus 4.6%; claimants +20.1k.

Read-through: the ECB and BoE can hold. Europe grows through services while factories repair slowly.


Asia-Pacific
India remained the global bright spot: manufacturing 55.7; services 59.1; composite 58.9. That supports regional demand without lifting global goods prices.

Japan improved at the margin. Core machinery orders jumped 7.0% m/m (12.5% y/y). Exports rose 6.1% y/y.

The trade balance turned to a ¥322.2B surplus. Flash PMIs still showed a two-speed economy (manufacturing 49.7; services 52.5).

Korea's money growth stayed firm (M2 7.1% y/y), backing domestic demand.
Americas and Africa
Chile cut to 4.50%, keeping a cautious easing path. Argentina posted a primary surplus (ARS 2,128M) and 3.3% y/y growth. South Africa was on holiday.
Why this matters globally
Lower U.S. wage inflation and a crude draw reduce the odds of a renewed price spike. That eases dollar pressure and supports global risk.

Europe's low inflation plus improving sentiment lowers recession risk and helps exporters with cheaper inputs.

Asia's momentum-India's demand and Japan's orders-puts a floor under the 2026 goods cycle without stoking inflation.
What to do with it
Favor quality duration. Overweight service-led U.S. and India. Add selectively to European exporters with low cost bases.

Keep energy exposure balanced: inventories fell, but capacity looks adequate. Stay cautious on UK domestics until labor and housing stabilize.

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