Population Surge Spurs UAE Realty Boom As Record-Breaking 2025 Ends

(MENAFN- Khaleej Times)

The UAE property market is on track to end 2025 on a record-breaking note, with strong investor demand, rising population and robust economic fundamentals driving activity across key emirates.

As 2026 begins, the UAE is entering a more balanced phase. Supply is rising, demand remains healthy, and market cycles are becoming more predictable. Analysts from Moody's and Fitch describe the period ahead as one of measured growth, rather than the exuberance of the last two years.

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According to CBRE, Colliers, Cavendish Maxwell and Property Finder, the year delivered new highs in transactions and price growth, even as early signs of normalisation appeared.

The macro backdrop in 2025 was supportive. CBRE places GDP growth at around 4.9 per cent, fuelled by tourism, non-oil expansion and foreign investment. The UAE PMI stayed above 54, signalling steady business activity.

Population growth remained one of the biggest demand catalysts-ValuStrat notes Dubai added roughly 1,000 residents per day in early 2025, pushing housing needs across the city. Wealth migration also played its part, with Henley & Partners reporting nearly 10,000 millionaires moving to the UAE in 2025, boosting the top end of the market.

Dubai's residential sector delivered another strong year. Cavendish Maxwell reports 55,300 transactions in Q3 2025, up 17 per cent annually, while Property Finder tallied 59,044, the highest ever for the quarter. Off-plan dominated, accounting for more than 70 per cent of activity, driven by attractive payment plans and investor appetite.

Prices rose about 16 per cent year-on-year, according to Cavendish Maxwell, supported by demand for waterfront and branded projects. Ready sales softened slightly-down 5 per cent quarter-on-quarter-as buyers became more price-sensitive.

Supply is the market's next defining factor. Deliveries in Q3 reached 9,400 units, but the real wave lies ahead. Fitch and Moody's estimate 150,000–250,000 units are expected between 2025 and 2027. While this raises the risk of temporary oversupply, both agencies expect a soft landing, with any corrections contained and driven by mid-market apartments rather than prime segments.

CBRE notes that rental growth moderated to 8–12 per cent year-on-year in 2025 after two years of rapid increases. Apartment rents rose 2 per cent in Q3, and villas 4 per cent year-on-year. As more supply arrives in 2026, rental stabilisation is expected to continue.

This shift is pushing more long-term residents toward ownership: surveys cited by Property Finder suggest over half of Dubai residents plan to buy within three years.

The office market remained one of the tightest globally. CBRE and JLL report 94 per cent occupancy in Grade A districts, with rents rising nearly 29 per cent annually. Transaction values increased 87 per cent in Q3, driven by strong off-plan activity.

With limited new stock until 2027, the commercial segment will likely stay landlord-favourable through 2026.

Abu Dhabi posted its strongest year on record. Property Finder reports 7,154 transactions in Q3, a remarkable 76 per cent annual rise. Off-plan sales dominated at 73 per cent, led by projects on Fahid Island and Al Hidayriyyat. Off-plan apartment values surged 276 per cent, supported by controlled supply and strong absorption.

Colliers highlights 11–13 per cent rental growth across key segments, while prime offices in ADGM approached full occupancy, with fitted units exceeding Dh3,000 per sqm.

Abu Dhabi's disciplined supply strategy positions it for continued resilience in 2026.

The Northern Emirates expanded rapidly in 2025. Colliers reports more than 13,000 new units launched in Q3 alone. Ras Al Khaimah saw 18 per cent annual price growth and 12 per cent rental increases, fuelled by relocations from Dubai and tourism-related demand tied to Al Marjan Island and the forthcoming Wynn Resort.

Sharjah posted 12 per cent price growth and strong family-driven demand, while Al Ain maintained stable, community-led performance with new government-backed housing initiatives.

The luxury market remained a top performer, lifted by high-net-worth migration and limited supply. Cavendish Maxwell notes 15–30 per cent annual growth in Dubai's ultra-prime districts such as Palm Jumeirah and Dubai Hills.

RAK's coastal luxury projects gained global attention, with some developments reporting nearly 80 per cent international buyers.

Rising supply - especially in Dubai - is expected to cool price growth. Fitch sees potential softening of up to 15 per cent in select mid-market segments. Luxury and waterfront assets should remain stable due to limited supply and global interest. More completed homes in 2026 will broaden choice and ease affordability pressures.

Enhanced transparency and project oversight will reinforce investor confidence. Corporate relocations and expatriate inflows will continue to support both residential and commercial markets.

The UAE enters 2026 from a position of strength. Dubai is moving toward equilibrium, Abu Dhabi continues its steady upward trajectory, and the Northern Emirates are capturing new migration and tourism-driven demand.

The outlook is one of maturity, stability and sustained long-term appeal, experts say.“The next phase will be defined less by record-breaking numbers and more by balance, resilience and strategic growth-signs of a property market evolving with confidence.”

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