(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) By Nitya Chakraborty

What is happening to the INDIA Bloc which gave just a big jolt to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his NDA in 2024 Lok Sabha elections? The BJP for the first time since the taking over of Narendra Modi as PM failed to get majority and was forced to form a minority government with the support of other NDA partners, especially JD(U) and Telugu Desam. The INDIA Bloc was high in the post Lok Sabha polls period and the impression gained ground that the downslide of the BJP under Modi regime had begun.

After one and half years since the Lok Sabha results were out in June 2024, the political scenario in the country is now completely different. During this period, NDA led by the BJP won state assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi and the latest BJP victory was in Bihar when the results were out on November 14 this year. It was a downslide of the INDIA Bloc and big upswing by the NDA led by the BJP. The major credit for the success in the series of the assembly elections in the last eighteen months has to be given to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Home Minister Amit Shah along with the RSS supremo Mohan Bhagwat. Bhagwat, who despite his continuing differences with the PM mobilized his RSS cadres in the poll campaign for the state polls in a much more organized manner compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Right now, the winter session of Parliament is on and both the houses are in doldrums with the opposition challenging the Election Commission decision on the implementation of Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in a hurry. In the next round of elections, four states Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are going to polls in April/May 2026. Out of these states, SIR implementation is not going to be taken up in Assam. Assam has been excluded from the revision process while the other states are undergoing the same. INDIA Bloc's strong intervention in Parliament against the SIR is fine but that should not lead in any way to the softening of the efforts to make the state organization prepared for the 2026 state assembly elections.

For the INDIA Bloc, all priority should be focused on Assam which is ruled by the BJP led combination since 2016 and now for 2026 state elections, the BJP led NDA led by the chief minister Himanta Biswa Sharma has been making foolproof preparations to ensure another victory in the 2026 state polls. Assam has 126 seats in the assembly and a close look at the election figures of the 2021 assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections show that the vote percentage difference between the Congress and the BJP varied between one per cent to three per cent. The BJP extracted the victory due to its formation of a combination adding votes to the NDA in its marginal seats thereby leading to the defeat of the Congress and its allies.

See also Delhi Summit To See A New Strategic Reset In India-Russia Partnership

In 2021 assembly elections, BJP got 33.6 per cent of the votes in Assam as against Congress's 30 per cent. But the BJP's seat tally was 60 as against only 29 by the Congress. The AIUDF which fought separately got 16 seats with 9.4 per cent of the votes. So if the Congress would have an understanding with the AIUDF which is primarily a party of the Bengali speaking Muslims, the Congress-AIUDF could have easily defeated the NDA. Similarly in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP got 37.9 per cent votes, the Congress also got the same 37.9 per cent. But in the number of seats, the BJP got 9 seats while the Congress got 3 seats. Thus with the same percentage of votes, the Congress got one third of BJP seats.

Congress is the biggest party of the INDIA Bloc in Assam and the Party has functioned as a ruling Party for a long time. The last Congress chief minister Tarun Gogoi was a popular CM. He knew the intricacies of retaining power. The Congress decline took place during Modi regime, but the Congress has still its traditional base among both Assamese Hindus and Muslims.. This time, the Congress has to make all efforts to mobilise the anti- BJP forces under the INDIA Bloc. If it is not possible, the Congress led front in the state can have electoral understanding in the designated marginal seats to ensure NDA defeat. Out of 126 seats in the assembly, there are around 30 such marginal seats and in most of these seats, AIUDF has presence.

During 2021 assembly elections, the Assam state Congress did not get due support from the central leadership of the Congress. Funds were also in short supply. The Congress high command has to take up the Assam assembly elections seriously as with vigorous efforts, the NDA government can be unseated in Assam in 2026 polls. But that needs intensive campaign by the Congress, the full mobilization of the opposition front of six parties led by the Congress and the adoption of an effective poll strategy that will help in preventing the division of anti-BJP votes. A strategic limited understanding with the AIUDF is essential for the Congress front to achieve victory, if it is serious about its objective of unseating BJP in 2026 assembly polls.

See also General Elections And Referendum To Be Held On Same Day In Bangladesh

INDIA Bloc has to give some attention to the coming elections to the Mumbai Corporation expected in December end this year. After the disastrous results of the last assembly elections, fissures among the INDIA Bloc constituents have widened. Right now, the three constituents Shiv Sena of Uddhav Thackeray, NCP of Sharad Pawar and the Congress are poles apart in framing a common strategy for Corporation elections. The outcome of this election is of strategic importance for the coming politics in Maharashtra. The results will have impact on the other elections in the coming months. If the BJP led NDA can win the elections, this will be another feather in the cap of the state BJP after assembly polls and their domination on state politics will increase marginalizing the INDIA Bloc constituents.

It is high time, the INDIA Bloc leaders talk at the central level about the situation in both Assam and Maharashtra and come out with some specific proposals to deal with the situation in the respective states. For INDIA Bloc, the elections in Assam and Mumbai Corporation are of crucial importance and it can be dealt only at the national level.

As regards Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the situation is already set, there is little scope for intervention by the INDIA Bloc. Kerala elections are limited to the Congress led UDF and the CPI(M) led LDF has marginal role. Whoever wins among the two alliances, belongs to the INDIA Bloc. Similarly in West Bengal, Trinamool Congress is the main opponent against the BJP. TMC under Mamata Banerjee is well prepared to take on BJP. In fact, BJP may lose its existing seats in 2026 polls. In Tamil Nadu also, the INDIA Bloc constituents are well settled under the leadership of DMK chief minister M K Stalin. The alliance is working perfectly well and is ready for 2026 polls. For these three states,INDIA Bloc centrally has nothing much to do. But for Assam and Mumbai Corporation, a lot needs to be done. (IPA Service)

The article Next Round Of Elections Are Just Five Months Away – Where Is The INDIA Bloc Doing? appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

MENAFN04122025000152002308ID1110434974