(MENAFN- The Arabian Post)

By Nantoo Banerjee

It is difficult to grasp the fact that even 78 years after its independence, India, the world's most populous country, continues to be heavily dependent on imported fertilizer to produce crops to feed its 1.46 billion-plus population. The prospect of a sudden fertiliser price surge ahead of its most important Rabi (winter) crop season, following suspension of exports by China since mid-October, is bound to impact especially the production and price of wheat along with other crops such as gram, peas, mustard and barley. India is the world's second largest producer of wheat, after China. Rabi crops are sown in autumn (October-November) and harvested in spring (March-April). India continues to be the world's largest fertiliser importer while China has been the world's second biggest exporter of fertiliser after Russia.

China has suspended the export of fertiliser until further notice. There will be no supplies from China of speciality fertilisers such as TMAP (Technical Monoammonium Phosphate) and urea-solution products like AdBlue as well as conventional soil nutrients, including DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) and urea. India is said to be importing almost 95 percent of speciality fertilisers from China. The country consumes annually some 2,50,000 tonnes of speciality fertilisers, of which nearly 65 percent are used during the Rabi season. Alternative supply sources include South Africa, Chile and Croatia.

So deficient is India in chemical fertiliser production that the country's import of even the most commonly used urea has more than doubled to 58.62 lakh tonnes during the first seven months of the current financial year. During the same period, last year, India imported 24.76 lakh tonnes. According to the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers, imports of some 17.5 lakh tonnes are lined up for this month and December. To bridge the shortage of fertilisers, the government is said to be making significant efforts to boost imports in the face of China's export suspension not only to meet the growing domestic demand but also to build a buffer stock for the immediate future. Based on the recent export value data, the major import sources of fertilisers are Russia, Canada, the US, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands.

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India imports several varieties of fertilizers such as urea, di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), and muriate of potash (MOP), along with various NPK complex fertilizers to maintain its robust agricultural production to feed its people. The government's primary free foodgrain supply plan provides free foodgrains to approximately 81.35 crore beneficiaries covered under the National Food Security Act (NFSA). The scheme has been extended until December 2028.

The food grains (rice, wheat, or coarse grains) are provided completely free of cost. It is fully funded by the central government, with an estimated financial outlay of around Rs. 11.80 lakh crore over the period. This calls for a continuous growth of agricultural production. Thanks to the country's massive import of fertilisers year after year, the agricultural production has been experiencing robust growth. The farm production showed a record 5.4 percent growth in FY 2025. For 2025-26, the growth target is 3.5 percent. The large-scale fertiliser imports and government's cash support to farmers through programmes like the Minimum Support Price (MSP) have helped boost the food production.

However, it is hardly a likable situation for India to make its agricultural production highly dependent on imported fertiliser. The country must raise the domestic production of chemical fertilisers. While the existing fertiliser producers need to be induced to vastly expand their respective capacities, new units should be given attractive incentives to come up fast. Strategically, it would be wrong to make India's agricultural production, which is linked with food security, substantially dependent on imported fertilisers. This is particularly so when the key import sources are limited. These sources include Russia, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Morocco, and China, depending on the requirement of specific types of fertilizer.

India has a number of fertiliser companies such as Coromandel International, Chambal Fertilisers, National Fertilisers, Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers, Gujarat State Fertilisers and Chemicals, Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore Limited, Paradeep Phosphates. In addition, there are two large cooperatives, namely Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Limited (IFFCO) and Krishak Bharati Cooperative (KRIBHCO). Marked by strong government support, India's fertilizer producers continue to be through a challenging but transformative period. Despite facing a supply crunch and volatile global prices since the middle of the current year, there are positive developments including long-term supply agreements. Supply issues occurred in mid-2025, with declining domestic production and imports leading to sharp stock depletion of key fertilizers like urea and DAP.

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A global supply stranglehold, particularly for imported DAP, resulted in significant price spurt in mid-2025, stretching producer margins and increasing official subsidy costs. The government is working to bridge the gap between domestic production and demand through increased imports, but also with a strategic push to reduce dependence on urea and promote balanced nutrient use. The domestic industry received significant budgetary support, with a notable increase in the fertilizer subsidy allocation for 2024-25. The cabinet has also approved rates for the Rabi 2025-26 season to ensure affordability. The country has signed long-term agreements, such as a deal with Saudi Arabia's Maaden, to secure a stable supply of DAP for the next five years. The domestic fertiliser industry is strategically shifting towards balanced nutrient use. The latter may lead to a slight dip in overall urea production but a healthier, more sustainable agricultural ecosystem in the long run.

A predominantly agricultural country with a large portion of its population depending on agriculture for their livelihood, and the sector's significant role in its economy, the country can't afford to leave the fate of its agriculture on imported fertilisers. In fact, agriculture is a strategic sector. Around 42 percent of India's workforce is employed in agriculture, and it contributes approximately 17-18 percent to the country's GDP. The country must end its overwhelming dependence on fertiliser imports by boosting domestic production, judiciously using fertilisers, and innovating through initiatives like indigenous technology development. The country must make strong efforts to revive old fertiliser plants and build new ones, developing alternatives like nano urea, and fostering a shift toward more balanced, organic farming practices. (IPA Service )

The article Fertiliser Import Price Surge May Hit India's Rabi Crop Output appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

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