The election of Zohran Mamdani as New York City's first democratic socialist mayor reflects growing public frustration over surging housing prices and deepening inequality in global cities, according to Jean Imbs, Professor of Economics at New York University Abu Dhabi.

“I think the first thing I would say is that his success comes from two things. He's got personal charisma, irrespective of his political platform,” he said.“And two, New York City has one of those features that a lot of global cities share, which is that housing prices are absurdly expensive. And I think that does create a backlash.”

Imbs noted that the“explosion of real estate prices” and lack of affordable housing for middle-class families were“probably a big contributor” to Mamdani's victory.“The real estate boom in New York has been particularly damaging for the social fabric of that city.”

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While the professor cautioned against seeing the result as an international trend, he said similar dynamics could emerge wherever affordability becomes a critical issue.“Accelerated rise in price of housing and rents does create tensions - social tensions,” he explained.

On business confidence, Imbs said there were legitimate concerns about the economic implications of Mamdani's ambitious social agenda.“His programme is extremely progressive. He gives soundbites that suggest he wants to have free transportation, cheap housing, without really telling us how that's going to be financed.”

“Either he does it in a way that is actually quite disruptive for the business environment, or he doesn't do it, or does something that's a compromise,” he added.“Before the fact, I think there's a legitimate worry about the massive increase in spending his policies would entail.”

Imbs also questioned whether Mamdani's relative youth and limited experience might affect his ability to deliver on campaign promises.“He's 34, doesn't have much of a political experience,” he pointed.“So, you know, there's an issue of credibility of these things that he proposes to do.”

On the impact for global investors, Imbs said that financial markets are more likely to react to national policies than city-level politics.“I am not sure global investors pay attention to geography that much,” he said.“What they pay attention to are tax law, the rule of law, the confidence that there won't be any government disruptions looking forward.”

However, he added that New York's role as a financial capital means that any new taxes on financial intermediation could have consequences.“If there are taxes on intermediation, if there are things like VAT, then of course it will start questioning the role of New York as a financial platform,” he said.“But we're a little bit in the fog - we don't really know what type of financing he has in mind.”

Comparing New York's housing crisis with the Gulf, Imbs said that Dubai and Abu Dhabi are less exposed to such pressures because of their high construction activity and abundant land.“A big difference with Dubai and Abu Dhabi is just that the supply of housing is potentially plentiful,” he said.“Construction is booming. So, there are serious reasons to believe that prices in both cities could stabilise.”

The professor concluded that housing affordability remains“a very central feature of social equity” everywhere.“I'm pretty convinced this is essentially why he got elected in New York.”

Political analyst Mohammed Al Sawafi said that Mamdani's win carries more domestic than global significance.“The real meaning is internal to the United States - he is a Muslim, an immigrant, and a democratic socialist,” Al Sawafi said.“But externally, it carries nothing new. Former president Barack Obama had already reached the highest office as a person of different background, and that did not create lasting political change - if anything, it led to many challenges in U.S. relations with the world.”

He noted that London offers a similar example, with a Muslim immigrant serving as mayor without disrupting the city's standing.“London, like New York, is a global city, and yet nothing changed because of that,” he said.

On the economic impact, Al Sawafi said the difference between campaign rhetoric and governing reality will be decisive.“For any politician, there is a gap between electoral promises and the realities they face in office,” he said.“The promises Mamdani made may become his greatest challenges with voters.”

He added that New York's status as a world business hub makes cooperation essential.“His success will depend on understanding and working with business leaders, not on changing policies in a revolutionary way,” he said.“I do not think the investment climate will be greatly affected, because Mamdani himself will need to stimulate investment to deliver on what he promised.”

Al Sawafi said Mamdani's brand of politics represents a left-wing populism that contrasts with the right-wing variety seen elsewhere.“Such socialist populism tends to emerge in large cities with high concentrations of immigrants, especially among younger generations,” he said.“We are likely to see a global phenomenon where left and right populisms face off, each defending its own social base.”

However, he cautioned against drawing parallels between New York and the Gulf.“There is a clear difference,” Al Sawafi said.“Mamdani is an American citizen of Asian descent, and the U.S. Constitution allows him to run for office. In the UAE, there is a large Asian expatriate community - professionals and investors - but political participation is not structured in the same way.”

“Here, the focus is mainly economic,” he added, noting that political activism by expatriate communities in the Gulf is not comparable to what happens in the U.S.

On investor sentiment, Al Sawafi said that global investors ultimately seek stability.“What matters most is political and security stability, and the presence of opportunities and skilled labor, regardless of a country's political orientation,” he said.“Mamdani understands this, and I don't think he will take major risks - otherwise he would prove Donald Trump's warnings right.”

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