(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets open today with Itaú Unibanco posting a rock-solid Q3 recurring profit of $2.2 billion (+11% YoY) and a 23.3% ROE-proof that disciplined banking can thrive even as factories bleed.

September industrial output fell 0.4% MoM, the Selic strangles credit, and 50% U.S. tariffs gut exports. Yet the Ibovespa chalked its tenth straight gain yesterday, closing at a fresh record 150,704.20.

Across the Atlantic, U.S. off-year elections saw Democrats sweep blue-state governorships (Virginia, New Jersey) while voters backed conservative ballot measures-parental rights in Texas, gun-safety tweaks in Maine-signaling no clear tariff relief for Brazil's battered manufacturers.
Today's agenda delivers three make-or-break prints for the real and the Copom:

• 8:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) | Prev: 46.0
  A sub-50 reading locks in contraction, validating the 0.4% industrial plunge and tariff carnage.
  
• 8:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) | Prev: 46.3
  Services employ 70% of Brazilians; any tick lower kills hopes of a domestic offset to factory pain.
  
• 4:30 PM BRT – Copom Interest Rate Decision | Cons: 15.00% Prev: 15.00%
  A unanimous hold cements credibility; any dovish whisper (Haddad's“slash now” plea) risks a fiscal-premium spike in the BRL.
  

These matter because PMI confirms whether the Selic-tariff double punch is killing growth, while the Copom vote draws the line between monetary independence and populist sabotage-directly steering USD/BRL, Ibovespa futures, and Itaú-style bank resilience.
Key global highlights:

• 9:45 AM BRT – U.S. S&P Global Services PMI tracks American demand for Brazilian proteins and planes.
  
• 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (cons. 50.7) signals Fed pause length, dollar strength, and carry-trade appetite.
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – EIA Crude Inventories moves Petrobras and the oil-funded fiscal buffer.
  

Mexico watches Gross Fixed Investment (7:00 AM BRT, cons. –1.8% MoM) for tariff spill-over; Europe's PPI (5:00 AM BRT) hints at commodity euro flows. Collectively, they frame Brazil's external accounts as factories beg for oxygen.
Economic Agenda for November 5, 2025
Brazil

• 8:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct)
  Prev: 46.0
  Implication: Sub-50 confirms sixth straight industrial contraction, tariff hemorrhage, and GDP drag.
  
• 8:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
  Prev: 46.3
  Implication: Weak services = no domestic firewall against 15% Selic and 50% U.S. duties.
  
• 4:30 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision
  Cons: 15.00% Prev: 15.00%
  Implication: Hold = credibility premium; leak of cuts = 5.45–5.50 BRL spike.
  

Mexico

• 7:00 AM BRT – Gross Fixed Investments (MoM) (Aug)
  Cons: –1.8% Prev: 1.6%
  
• 7:00 AM BRT – Gross Fixed Investments (YoY) (Aug)
  Cons: –7.8% Prev: –6.6%
  
• 9:30 AM BRT – S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
  Prev: 46.3
  Implication: Triple whammy probes near-shoring collapse and peso contagion to BRL.
  

United States

• 9:45 AM BRT – S&P Global Services PMI (Oct)
  Cons: 55.2 Prev: 54.2
  
• 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
  Cons: 50.7 Prev: 50.0
  
• 10:30 AM BRT – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
  Cons: –2.5M Prev: –6.9M
  Implication: Soft U.S. data eases dollar chokehold; oil draw lifts Petrobras and fiscal oil royalties.
  

Europe

• 5:00 AM BRT – PPI (MoM) (Sep)
  Cons: 0.0% Prev: –0.3%
  
• 5:00 AM BRT – PPI (YoY) (Sep)
  Cons: –0.2% Prev: –0.6%
  
• 9:45 AM BRT – Eurozone Services PMI (final)
  Cons: 52.6 Prev: 51.3
  Implication: Firmer eurozone demand buoys soy, pulp, and iron-ore euros into Brazilian coffers.
  

Why These Events Matter: Brazil's PMI duo and Copom verdict answer whether 15% rates and 50% tariffs have broken the economy's back.

U.S. services and oil steer dollar tides; Mexico's investment collapse warns of regional contagion; European prices shape commodity inflows.

Together they dictate USD/BRL volatility, Ibovespa direction, and whether Itaú's fortress banking can shield the broader market from industrial freefall.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday
São Paulo's B3 delivered a tenth consecutive gain and seventh straight all-time high on November 4, with the Ibovespa up 0.17% to 150,704.20 points despite global risk-off and Senate delays on betting/fintech tax bills.

Klabin, Banco do Brasil, and Itaú Unibanco (+1.66%) led; volume robust on foreign inflows betting on Copom discipline.

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U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. indices tanked Tuesday, November 4. S&P 500 –1.2% to 6,771.55, Dow –0.5%, Nasdaq –2% (Palantir –7.9%, Nvidia –4%). Tech rout plus 35-day government shutdown erased post-election relief; YTD gains trimmed to +15.1% (S&P), +20.9% (Nasdaq).

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Mexico's Market Yesterday
Mexican peso and IPC retreated amid global uncertainty, tariff fears, and weak fixed-investment outlook; stocks erased early gains as dollar strength punished EM carry.

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Argentina's Market Yesterday
Merval surged 3.2%, peso stabilized, and energy names led as Milei's coalition digested midterm wins and pushed privatization agenda.

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Colombia's Market Yesterday
Colombian peso steadied and stocks climbed, shrugging off Wall Street gloom on firm oil and coffee prices plus carry-trade revival.

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Chile's Market Yesterday
Chilean peso held ground, copper -exposed shares advanced, but tech sell-off and dollar rally capped gains.

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Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real weakened to 5.3989 BRL/USD on November 4, hit by Senate gridlock on R$6.7 billion fiscal bills, Haddad's rate-cut saber-rattling, and DXY surge to 100.255 amid U.S. shutdown and hawkish Fed whispers.

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Cryptocurrencies
A $128 million Balancer DeFi hack triggered $1.2 billion liquidations and panic selling; Bitcoin breached $100,000 and the 200-day MA, dragging global crypto cap lower in lockstep with Nasdaq's tech rout.

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Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Banking shines-Itaú's 23.3% ROE and 37.7% efficiency beacon. Industry drowns-September output –0.4% MoM, 14.8% below 2011 peak, strangled by 15% Selic and 50% U.S. tariffs on cars/wood.
Key Developments
Itaú Unibanco Q3 recurring profit $2.2 billion (+11%), credit book +6.4% to R$1.4 trillion, NPL steady at 2.0%-fortress balance sheet.

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Industrial output down 0.4% in September; factories 14.8% below 2011 levels as Selic credit crunch meets 50% U.S. duties.

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Senate stalls betting/fintech tax and income-tax exemption bills-R$6.7 billion revenue hole widens fiscal risk premium.

Embraer Q3: orders up, profits down-trade headwinds exact“real price.”

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Eve Air Mobility fights global eVTOL giants amid capital burn.

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Shell's $1 billion lifeline to Raizen; debt trap lingers.

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Focus Report: recovery hinges on“hard choices”-rate path, tariffs, fiscal anchor.

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BB Seguridade, TIM, Copasa Q3: mixed resilience snapshot.

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Tegma, Pague Menos, Energisa Q3: retail/logistics squeezed, utilities hold.

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