Bitcoin's price has flirted with the $115,000 mark, only to pull back and settle into a tight range between about $108,750 and $112,000 as buying momentum weakens. Traders and analysts now await a decisive move in either direction to signal the next major trend.

After a breakout attempt stalled just above $115,000, liquidity cooled and buyers began to step aside, according to on-chain data and sentiment analysis. The 30-day momentum index on CryptoQuant dropped to –2 per cent from +1 per cent earlier in the week, underlining a loss of conviction behind the rally. The price action now shows descending highs, suggesting bulls are losing early ground. Resistance sits in the $111,000–$112,000 zone; only a sustained move here could re-ignite upward pressure. Failure to defend support around $108,600 could expose the market to a slide toward $106,000–$105,000.

Technical analysts point to a pattern of consolidation following the failed breakout above $115,000. While buyers attempted to push through, they lacked follow-through, leaving the market stuck in a neutral to slightly bearish posture. Axel Adler, whose work with CryptoQuant is cited in analyses, observed that sellers are stepping in at lower highs, limiting upside attempts. Market structure is now tilted toward volatility unless fresh demand emerges.

Institutional behaviour adds nuance. Whale wallets-those holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC-have accumulated roughly 65,000 BTC in recent sessions, bringing their aggregate holdings to an all-time high of about 3.65 million BTC. That accumulation suggests structural demand remains under the surface. At the same time, analysts note that technical indicators like moving averages have formed bullish signals-for instance, a“golden cross” between the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages on shorter timeframes is seen as supportive. Some forecasts even project a path toward $150,000 should momentum revive.

Macro drivers are also in focus. ETF inflows in the United States are injecting liquidity into the market and are widely regarded as a catalyst for continuation moves. Bitcoin has reclaimed its 100-day moving average, which had acted as resistance and is now a support anchor. RSI readings have turned positive, and the broader sentiment has shifted from outright bearish to cautiously optimistic as institutional capital flows reappear.

Still, not everyone is confident. Some analysts argue that despite price strength, the upside is structurally vulnerable. A technical review on Seeking Alpha has rated Bitcoin a“Sell” over the next 12 months, citing weaker momentum and divergence as signals that gains may not sustain without external catalysts.

Crucially, macroeconomic uncertainty looms. Market bets converge around expectations of U. S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the final quarter. Should stimulus emerge, risk-assets including Bitcoin might rally; if inflation surprises or central banks hold firm, volatility could reverberate downward.

Arabian Post – Crypto News Network

Also published on Medium .

MENAFN12102025000152002308ID1110183962