Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Mexico's Markets Walk A Tightrope As The Dollar Stays Firm


(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Mexico's peso steadied around 18.38 per dollar on Friday morning while the S&P/BMV IPC hovered near 60,819 after a 0.11% dip on Thursday.

The calm masks a tougher backdrop: the U.S. Dollar Index is holding near 99.4 , and U.S. 10-year yields are sitting around 4.14%-levels that usually cool risk appetite across emerging markets.
What happened and why it matters:
Traders kept USD/MXN boxed in a narrow 18.32–18.43 range overnight. Mexico's appeal lies in a tidy macro mix: September inflation at 3.76% remains inside Banxico 's target band, giving the central bank room to ease gradually without undercutting the currency.

That credibility-plus steady U.S. demand for Mexican exports-has helped the peso hold its ground even as the global dollar stays strong.



On equities, Thursday looked more like a pause than a break . The IPC is consolidating after this week's swings.

International money hasn't left-Mexico 's ETF complex still shows net creations over the past 12 months-but a firmer dollar is keeping the upside in check.
Top Movers - S&P/BMV IPC (Thursday Close)
Winners (5):
1. Grupo México (GMEXICOB) +2.37%
2. Grupo Carso (GCARSO A1) +2.31%
3. Grupo Bimbo (BIMBO A) +1.84%
4. Walmart de México (WALMEX) +1.32%
5. América Móvil (AMX L/M) +0.5% (approx.)
Losers (5):
1. Gentera (GENTERA) −3.39%
2. Regional/Banregio (RA) −2.69%
3. Megacable (MEGACPO) −2.31%
4. Alsea (ALSEA) −2.16%
5. ASUR (ASUR B) −1.95%


The story behind the story:
Mexico's edge is balance -credible inflation control, cautious rate cuts, and supply-chain links to the U.S. That mix limits downside when the dollar is bid, but it also caps upside until the greenback cools.

Technically, USD/MXN is neutral on 4-hour charts (RSI near 50; bands tight) and still capped below 18.50–18.60 on daily charts. The IPC holds above key support at 60,300–60,700; reclaiming 61,100–61,300 would relieve pressure.

What to watch next: Any softening in U.S. data-or a pullback in the dollar-would give the peso and Mexican shares room to breathe.

If the dollar pushes higher, expect range-bound, cautious trade , with Mexico's fundamentals continuing to act as a cushion rather than a catalyst.

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