Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Brazil Stocks Pause Despite Global Rally As Technicals Cool


(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's stock market hit the brakes just as the rest of the world was pressing the accelerator. The Ibovespa slipped 0.41% to 143,608 on Monday, and the October mini-Ibovespa future closed at 144,170 (-0.37%).

Dollar futures eased 0.60% to 5.345, reflecting a firmer real. Turnover was light-about R$16.7 billion ($3.15 billion)-the kind of session that feels more like a breather than a trend break.

What happened on the surface was simple: banks and Petrobras softened, while iron-ore and steel names held up. Embraer outperformed after Sweden confirmed an order for its C-390 transport aircraft.

Under the surface, the story was about positioning. After a strong run, locals took profits while foreigners-who added money to Brazil ETFs last week-weren't aggressive enough to offset the selling.

Politics and data added color without changing the plot. A cordial Lula–Trump video call raised hopes of smoother trade conversations, helping the currency more than equities.



September's trade surplus printed $2.99 billion-smaller year over year due to a one-off oil-platform import but a touch better than forecasts. The weekly Focus survey nudged expectations only slightly, leaving the macro backdrop broadly intact.

Technicals explain the pause. BTG Pactual 's desk flagged a bearish moving-average cross on the 60-minute chart, signaling short-term selling pressure.

The four-hour setup agrees: MACD has turned down, RSI sits in the low-40s, and prices hover around the middle-to-lower Bollinger band-weak, not washed-out.

The daily chart is sturdier: RSI near neutral and an ascending base clustered at 139,000–140,000 keep the longer uptrend alive. In practice, 143,000 and 141,000 are the nearby supports; 145,000–146,000 is the pivot that would re-ignite momentum.

Why it matters to readers outside Brazil: this is a classic“pause within an uptrend.” Global risk appetite is supportive and the real is steady, but local profit-taking and soft energy names are capping the index.

Today, watch whether the market can reclaim the 146,000 area; if it does, the path back toward recent highs reopens. If it loses 141,000, the consolidation gets deeper.

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