US Drone Swarm Plan Spiraling Into Obilivion

(MENAFN- Asia Times) The US's Replicator project, billed as a way to swarm China with“small, smart, cheap” drones, has been grounded by delays, spiraling costs and software chaos, raising questions about the Pacific balance of power in a fast-moving new era of drone warfare.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the US Department of Defense's (DoD) ambitious Replicator program, launched in 2023 to rapidly field thousands of autonomous drones across air, land and sea domains, missed its August 2025 delivery target, forcing a restructuring under a new unit known as the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG).

Conceived by then–Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks with US$1 billion in initial funding, the Replicator was intended to provide“small, smart, cheap” drone systems to counter China's growing military power and prepare for a potential conflict over Taiwan as early as 2027.

However, unreliable hardware, slow or costly production and software failures in coordinating drones from different manufacturers have plagued the effort. Tests revealed problems ranging from rudder failures on unmanned boats to misidentification of objects and communication vulnerabilities in Switchblade 600 drones, which also faced criticism for high costs and poor battlefield performance in Ukraine.

With Lieutenant General Frank Donovan of Special Operations Command now overseeing DAWG, the US DoD has less than two years to field effective systems, underscoring the urgency of dispersing cheap, expendable drones to offset Chinese military advances and ensure US readiness in the Pacific.

US drone performance in the Russia-Ukraine war may have been less than stellar – possibly failing to justify their cost. Newsweek reported in April 2024 that Ukraine's drone strategy has pivoted away from US drones due to prohibitive costs and poor battlefield performance against Russian electronic warfare.

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A US Switchblade 300 anti-tank loitering munition costs $90,000 per unit , in contrast to some commercial models repurposed by Ukraine that cost just $700. Furthermore, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds mention in a May 2023 Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) report that Ukraine is losing 10,000 drones a month, mainly to Russian jamming.

According to Newsweek, US drones are glitch-prone and challenging to repair, and have proven less effective than cheaper Chinese models, which Ukraine now sources in the tens of thousands per month. Despite initial US support, Ukraine is increasingly relying on domestic drones, which prioritize affordability and operational simplicity, the report said.

While acknowledging these challenges, the US DoD continues to refine its drone capabilities. However, the Newsweek report cites experts stating that while US drones remain technologically superior, they are ill-suited to Ukraine's fast-paced combat needs.

The situation at sea may be no better. Reuters reported in August 2025 that the US Navy's ambitious push to field autonomous maritime drones faces mounting setbacks, including software failures, test crashes and leadership turmoil.

According to Reuters, recent incidents such as a drone boat collision and a capsized support vessel underscore technical flaws in systems developed by Saronic and BlackSea Technologies. Furthermore, the report mentions the US DoD has paused a $20 million contract with L3Harris amid concerns over autonomy software.

The Trump administration's skepticism over the US Navy's approach and the firing of Rear Admiral Kevin Smith have further destabilized the Program Executive Office Unmanned and Small Combatants, Reuters said. It points out that, despite a $5 billion funding boost under US President Donald Trump's“Big Beautiful Bill,” experts warn that the US Navy must recalibrate its tactics to meet operational realities.

Things may be better for the US Air Force, as its YF-42A fighter drone prototype completed its test flight in August 2025 , with plans to purchase 1,000 units or more. However, Jay Stout warns in a July 2025 Proceedings article that these robotic systems require comparable size, payload, stealth and AI sophistication to manned jets, driving costs near parity and thus breaking the“affordable mass” premise of the Replicator program.

These challenges may have been foreseen. At a US Congressional Hearing in October 2023 , experts highlighted multiple challenges with the Replicator program.

Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute (HI) warned that Replicator risks aiming at the wrong problem, noting that trying to match China's mass with mass is flawed. Instead, he argues the program should prioritize enabling operational innovation backed by robust analytic processes and cross-domain integration of unmanned systems – areas where the US DoD has historically struggled.

William Greenwalt of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) wrote that Replicator faces significant cultural and bureaucratic obstacles, as the US DoD remains entrenched in a“1960s paradigm” of slow, sequential acquisition.

Greenwalt cautioned that unless the Replicator program operates outside normal acquisition and budgeting rules, it will fail, as the US DoD's current system cannot deliver on the program's ambitious 18– to 24–month timeline.

Paul Scharre of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) argues that the program's biggest hurdles are speed and scale. While Scharre says Replicator aims to break the cycle of rising costs and shrinking numbers, the US DoD's bureaucracy is likely to resist both low-cost attritable systems and autonomy, meaning success will require senior-level intervention and sustained congressional support.

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Ultimately, though, Replicator may be based on a flawed premise. Bill Murray argues in a May 2025 Small Wars Journal article that, despite the Russia-Ukraine war hyping up drones as the future of warfare, drones are not a substitute for conventional firepower, i.e., artillery.

Murray points out that drones do not have the sheer destructive power of massed artillery and that Ukraine's extensive use of them comes from necessity, not superiority. He argues that the US risks strategic missteps by overemphasizing drones and neglecting the modernization of conventional artillery, which is essential for deterrence and dominance against near-peer adversaries.

Echoing Murray's views, Sam Tangredi argues in a March 2024 Proceedings article that the Replicator program's focus on mass-producing cheap autonomous drones is strategically flawed for countering China's high-tech military.

Tangredi points out that small drones lack the range, payload and lethality required for Pacific warfare, and should thus function primarily as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) tools rather than decisive weapons.

Tangredi says their tactical utility in Ukraine does not translate to the vast Indo-Pacific theater. Instead, Tangredi argues the US must prioritize ordnance-long-range antiship missiles, advanced sea mines and torpedoes-that can inflict substantial damage and deter aggression.

He mentions that instead of a Replicator strategy, an“Ordnator” strategy would ensure scalable, survivable firepower capable of defeating People's Liberation Army (PLA) forces, rather than relying on attritable platforms that offer minimal strategic impact.

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