Nifty Struggles Below 25,100: Will The Selling Pressure Deepen? SEBI Analysts Weigh In

Indian equity markets remained rangebound with a negative bias on Thursday with the Nifty index struggling around 25,100. 

With Nifty locked in a narrow trading band, market experts say support at 25,000 is crucial. On the upside, recovery needs a convincing move above 25,150–25,200. 

SEBI-registered analysts shared their Nifty outlook on Stocktwits. 

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services noted that the market remains in a downward trend, moving within a clearly established negative channel, leaving no signs of a pullback or reversal in sight. On the daily timeframe, if the Nifty decisively breaches the support zone between 25,040 and 25,050, the next target would lie near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone, approximately around 25,920.

On the upside, for a positive recovery, the index needs to cross the 25,140–25,150 range convincingly. Beyond that, the key challenge would be to break the upper boundary of the negative channel, which continues to act as a significant resistance hurdle, Sharma added. 

He said that the current trading range is well-defined, with a selloff likely if the index slips below 24,920–24,900, while a meaningful recovery would only emerge if levels above 25,150–25,200 are significantly crossed. Between this band, markets are likely to remain volatile. 

According to Sharma, the market is negatively biased, and if it breaks below 25,000, selling pressure will intensify. For intraday trading, he identified support near 25,030–25,040, with the next level at 25,000–24,980, followed by 24,920–24,900. On the upside, resistance is seen at 25,100, and if broken, the next hurdles would be around 25,140, 25,180, and 25,240.

Varunkumar Patel noted that foreign institutional investors extended their selling streak, offloading more than ₹2,400 crore in the cash market while simultaneously adding fresh shorts in Net Index Futures. This indicates not just profit booking but also a hedge against near-term weakness, showing a cautious to mildly bearish stance. 

In the global markets, he highlighted that the Hang Seng Index, a proxy for Chinese equities, continued its sharp bull run. With the MSCI Emerging Market Index rebalancing due in November, there is a real possibility that India's weight will be trimmed in favor of China, Patel cautioned. FIIs appear to be front-running this risk by paring Indian exposure and preparing to allocate more to China. 

Considering FII flows, global headwinds, and the looming MSCI rebalancing, the Indian market is likely to remain range-bound in the near term. Patel advised against aggressive bets and recommended a selective stock-picking strategy for traders. Domestic demand-driven themes, such as autos, infrastructure, and consumption, may show resilience, while FII-sensitive sectors could remain under pressure.

And Pradeep Carpenter identified Nifty support at 25,000-24,900 with resistance between 25,200-25,300. For Bank Nifty, he sees support at 55,000 and 54,800 with resistance at 55,300 and 55,500. Carpenter also identified Sensex support at 81,500, 81,300 with resistance at 82,000 and 82,300.

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