External Factors To Determine FX Rates In Ukraine Next Week KYT Group

(MENAFN- UkrinForm) The relevant forecast was made by the analysts of KYT Group, a multiservice fintech company, in a commentary to Ukrinform.

As explained by the analysts, currently, the main intrigue in global markets is the U.S. Federal Reserve System's September rate decision, which will determine the trajectory of not only fiat currency, but also stocks, gold, and even cryptocurrencies.

“If the rate is lowered, the euro will receive a boost: the EUR/USD ratio may change to 1.19-1.20. In Ukraine, this will strengthen the euro to UAH 49-49.20 and more. In this case, the U.S. dollar will lose some of its support, i.e. the USD/UAH rate may move to the lower limit of the corridor, closer to UAH 41.20-41.40. If the Federal Reserve leaves the rate unchanged, the U.S. dollar will retain its advantage: the EUR/USD rate may roll back to 1.14-1.15. In Ukraine, the U.S. dollar will remain at UAH 41.70-42.00 UAH, while the euro will rather consolidate in a narrow range of UAH 48.20-48.60 without a clear upward trend and drivers for this,” the analysts noted.

On the domestic market, as estimated by the analysts, the situation remains stable, and the exchange rate trajectory – fully controlled. Only external factors can change the situation, primarily news from the United States regarding the actions of the Federal Reserve.

“The NBU continues its policy of gradual strengthening of the hryvnia: the official exchange rate of the euro and the U.S. dollar is drifting downward, and market exchange rate indicators demonstrate a synchronous adjustment to it. Spreads remain stable without abnormal deviations; this indicates a balance of supply and demand, and most importantly, an actual exchange rate consensus between the regulator and the foreign exchange market operators and participants,” the analysts mentioned.

Therefore, the National Bank retains control over the dynamics and value of the exchange rate: with record reserves, it can flexibly manage the situation and 'pour' currency into the market at the right time. Demand from importers and the population does not create noticeable pressure, and the structural currency deficit remains easily manageable thanks to interventions.

“Another factor that may influence the NBU's exchange rate policy is the position of the Government and the Ministry of Finance: as it is known, the 2025 budget is calculated on the average annual value of the U.S. dollar exchange rate, i.e. UAH 45 for the U.S. dollar. But, the strengthening of the hryvnia, although it is a pleasant psychological signal of stability and manageability, reduces budget revenues from customs duties and fees denominated in foreign currency. At the same time, the budget situation is also clearly under control: so far, we have not heard any relevant signals from the Government or the Ministry of Finance to the NBU regarding a review of the current trend of strengthening the hryvnia,” the analysts stated.

As predicted by KYT Group, the strengthening of the euro against the hryvnia will continue at least until the Federal Reserve's decision. After that, everything will depend on the actions of the U.S. regulator.

“In any case, the key marker will be not only the rate itself, but also the behavior of spreads. It is their change that will show who is 'leading' the market at the moment: does the behavior of participants depend on the official exchange rate of the NBU, or vice versa – the reactions of market players affect the National Bank's exchange rate trajectory,” the analysts concluded.

A reminder that Liberty Finance, which is part of KYT Group, is one of Ukraine's largest foreign exchange market operators.

As of September 11, 2025, the official exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia was set as follows: UAH 41.21 for the U.S. dollar (UAH 41.12 as of September 10, 2025); UAH 48.24 for the euro (UAH 48.29 as of September 10, 2025).

Photo: NBU

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