France Political Crisis: PM François Bayrou Faces Confidence Vote Today - What You Need To Know

(MENAFN- Live Mint) French Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote on Monday, which he is expected to lose. The government's collapse is likely to plunge the euro zone's second-largest economy deeper into a political crisis.

François Bayrou is a veteran centre-right politician and France's fourth prime minister in three years.

The development comes amid a critical time for Europe, which is seeking unity in the face of Russia's war against Ukraine and trade tensions with the United States. Here is all you need to know:

What's happening in France?

France has been mired in a political crisis since President Emmanuel Macron called the 2024 snap election, which resulted in a hung parliament.

Macron's own alliance, already shorn of a majority since 2022, saw its numbers fall further, while the anti-immigration, far-right National Rally emerged as the biggest party, Bloomberg reported.

A loose coalition of left-wing parties, now deeply divided, came in as the largest bloc. No camp has a majority.

Macron's control over parliament weakened as France's debt ballooned, in part due to his largesse during the COVID and cost-of-living crises.

According to Bloomberg, the turmoil in France threatens its ability to rein in its debt, with the risk of further credit downgrades looming as bond spreads.

France faces acute pressure to repair its finances, with last year's deficit nearly double the EU's 3% limit of economic output and public debt at 113.9% of GDP.

Saying tough decisions were needed, Bayrou sought to pass a budget for 2026 that would require 44 billion euros ($51.51 billion) in savings.

This provoked an outcry from opponents.

Unable to see a path to adoption, Bayrou called a confidence vote on his fiscal strategy, in a gamble the opposition called political suicide.

Opposition parties have made clear they would vote him out, and they have more than enough members of parliament to do so.

What happens on Monday

The National Assembly convenes at 1500 (1300 GMT or 6:30 pm IST).

Bayrou will open with a speech. With almost no hope of winning, that speech will be for the record - or his political future - rather than to try to convince lawmakers, news agency Reuters.

The 10 parliamentary groups will respond, which will then be followed by a vote. Lawmakers will each drop a paper ballot into an urn.

The result is based on an absolute majority of votes cast - not of total seats.

If, as expected, the government loses, Bayrou must then submit his resignation to Macron.

There is no official schedule for that, but the outcome of the vote would be expected to be sometime around 1730-1800 GMT.

What happenes next?

If Bayrou does indeed lose the vote, it's all in Macron's hands.

Macron has so far resisted the idea of renewed snap elections and would therefore be required to appoint a new prime minister.

That new PM could be from the centre-left, after four centre-right picks failed to manage the fractured parliament. Or Macron could name a technocrat. There are no rules governing who Macron must choose, or how quickly.

If Macron takes his time, Bayrou could stay on in a caretaker capacity.

The far-right National Rally and hard-left France Unbowed parties are pushing for snap parliamentary elections - and for Macron to resign.

At a lunch this week, Macron and the centrist and conservative parties that back the current government all agreed that a dissolution of parliament would not solve the crisis, a source close to Macron said.

The source added that striking a deal with the Socialists seemed like one of the only viable options.

A government source confirmed a snap parliamentary election did not seem on the cards for now, adding that Finance Minister Eric Lombard, former Socialist prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, and Court of Auditors chief Pierre Moscovici, also a long-time Socialist, were among names circulating as possible choices for the next prime minister.

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