'Natural Allies': Wrong Term For China, Russia, Iran, North Korea

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Past contentions have also sown seeds of distrust in CRINK. Iran's suspicion of Russia stems from its painful historical memory of the Russian Empire's capturing Persian territories in the 18th and 19th centuries and the Soviet invasion of Iran in World War II.

This legacy continues as the two engage in an espionage war , with Iran allegedly stealing military-technological information and spreading religious propaganda in Russian communities and Russia taking measures to suppress such efforts.

Like Iran, China is a victim of territorial losses at the hands of Russia, and the resulting historical resentment dating back to the Qing Dynasty fuels young, well-educated Chinese citizens' cautious attitude toward Russia.

These deep insecurities are double-sided, with a recent leaked Russian memo labeling China as an enemy and raising flags about Chinese spies and reclamation of Vladivostok and other former Qing territories. Such worries are not unfounded, as the Chinese government has in fact launched a hacking campaign since the beginning of the war in Ukraine for Russian military secrets despite the two pledging not to hack each other.

North Korea has a history of switching alignment between Russia and China, depending on strategic need. Its relationship with China, in particular, is hot and cold, with Kim Jong Un once having described China's attempt to reform the North Korean economy as a“filthy wind of bourgeois liberty.”

In recent history, Russia and China have both supported sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear programs, showing the limits to friendship when North Korea proves to be a strategic liability.

Diverging strategic interests

Beyond history, both of these so-called natural alliances have diverging strategic interests that hinder smooth cooperation. Japan and South Korea, for one, have different threat perceptions of China – Japan has had a more antagonistic approach since the 2010s due to the escalation of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute, while South Korea has fluctuating alignment with China based on Beijing's approach to North Korea.

South Korea's dependence on both China and the US for economic and security purposes and its bandwagoning tendencies between its two rival partners has created a recipe for disaster. The THAAD incident, in which South Korea's deployment of a US missile defense system prompted economic retaliation from China, highlights South Korea's vulnerable position in balancing its alliances with the US and China.

The fact that South Korea's alliance with Japan has strengthened despite such varying interests is less natural and more proof of hard diplomatic work of maintaining multilateral partnerships and preventing the emergence of adversarial coalitions.

Strategic interests also often clash between Russia and the other members of CRINK. Russia competes with Iran for oil markets, maintains ties with Iran's enemies Israel and Saudi Arabia and aims to contain Iran's growing influence in the South Caucasus.

Contrary to popular belief, it is in China's best interest for Russia not to come out as the winner of the Ukraine war, as Russia would become an immediate threat to China and prevent China from building influence in Europe. In fact, China is already preparing for a post-war Ukraine, signaling its interest in Ukrainian reconstruction efforts and signing agricultural cooperation agreements.

Russia and China also differ on North Korean nuclear capability, with China finding North Korea's nuclear program a threat to stability on the Korean Peninsula while Russia aims to leverage North Korea's nuclear program to distract the US.

Bandaid of convenience

Terming countries“natural allies” acts as a band-aid of convenience that covers up the possibility of interrogating the nuances and deep scars of such partnerships. The term also burdens Japan and Korea with more of the responsibility for fixing their relationship – rather than encouraging mutual partners, starting with the US, to mediate and help the pair navigate their relationship.