Banking Expert Predicts No Significant Fluctuations On FX Market Next Week

(MENAFN- UkrinForm) The relevant statement was made by Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank Taras Liesovyi in a commentary to Ukrinform.

The expert believes that, by all indications, the period of relative exchange rate stability will continue. In particular, the U.S. dollar will maintain its position within its usual exchange rate corridor of UAH 41.2-41.8.

“At the same time, the National Bank, as the main market player, can, if necessary, take measures to maintain a balance between demand and supply. However, here too, the volume of possible currency interventions is unlikely to surprise: it is expected that the NBU will sell from USD 600 million to USD 800 million per week to meet the potential demand,” Liesovyi noted.

In his opinion, as in previous weeks, the current exchange rate changes may be multidirectional, but insignificant. Additionally, the difference between the buying/selling rates, between the 'price lists' of the interbank and cash markets will remain minimal. After all, the current regime of 'managed flexibility' is reliable and protects the market from exchange rate shocks.

“As for the exchange rate of the euro, it is difficult to predict, because the value of the European currency in Ukraine depends on the global trading in the dollar/euro pair and the corresponding quotations of the hryvnia/dollar pair. However, we do not expect any global changes: neither the U.S. dollar nor the euro will collapse, because they are strong and reliable world currencies. And the current ratio between them will also be stable: USD 1.15-1.2 for the euro,” Liesovyi explained.

On September 8-14, 2025, according to the expert's forecast, the main characteristics of the foreign exchange market will be as follows:

· The foreign exchange corridors of UAH 41.4-41.8 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 48-49 for the euro (on the interbank market); UAH 41.2-41.6 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 48-49.5 for the euro (on the cash market).

· The difference between the buying/selling rates will go up to UAH 0.15 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.2 for the euro (on the interbank market); UAH 0.5-0.6 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.8-1 for the euro (commercial banks); and UAH 0.6-1 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 1-1.3 for the euro (exchange offices).

· The difference in buying rates on the cash market will be UAH 0.2-0.3 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the euro (commercial banks); and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.5-0.7 for the euro (exchange offices).

· The difference in selling rates on the cash market will be UAH 0.1-0.2 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.2-0.3 for the euro (commercial banks); and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.5 for the euro (exchange offices).

· The average difference in foreign exchange rates on the interbank market and the cash market will be UAH 0.1-0.15.

“Therefore, it is quite possible that in mid-September the situation on the foreign exchange market will remain unchanged. On the one hand, the market is protected from undesirable phenomena (such as a rapid increase in demand and the formation of a 'gap' with the supply). On the other hand, the general economic situation in Ukraine (in particular, the slowdown in inflation, which was reflected in the reduction of the key policy rate) contributes to the strengthening of the Ukrainian hryvnia and the weakening of pressure on the exchange rate,” Liesovyi concluded.

A reminder that, as of September 4, 2025, the official exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia was set as follows: UAH 41.37 for the U.S. dollar (UAH 41.36 as of September 3, 2025); UAH 48.20 for the euro (UAH 48.17 as of September 3, 2025).

Photo: NBU

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