Gold Analysis 04/09: Ignores Overbought Conditions (Chart)

(MENAFN- Daily Forex) Today's Gold Analysis Overview:

• Overall Gold Trend: Strongly bullish.
• Today's Gold Support Levels: $3535 – $3490 – $3460 per ounce.
• Today's Gold Resistance Levels: $3580 – $3620 – $3670 per ounce.

Today's Gold Trading Signals:

• Buy gold from the $3490 support level, with a target of $3600 and a stop-loss at $3460.
• Sell gold from the $3600 resistance level, with a target of $3440 and a stop-loss at $3645.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:

The price of gold has reached a new all-time high. According to gold trading platforms, gold futures rose by more than 1% in the middle of the US holiday-shortened trading week. A slowdown in the US labor market has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month and continue its monetary easing policy into 2026. Gold futures rose by 1.2% to $3,635.30 per ounce. Spot gold jumped to a record $3,578 per ounce before settling around $3,555 per ounce at the start of trading on Thursday, September 4, 2025.

In general, gold prices, which hit an all-time intraday high, have risen by nearly 38% this year. In a similar bullish performance, silver, gold's sister commodity, broke the $42 per ounce barrier mid-week. Silver futures rose by 1.08% to $42.04 per ounce. The white metal has even outperformed gold, rising by about 44% in 2025.

Top Forex Brokers1 Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money Factors for Gold's Successive Gains

Based on the monitoring of trading experts and gold analysts' forecasts, the metals market has drawn support from multiple developments. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job vacancies in July fell to 7.181 million, compared to a downwardly revised 7.357 million. This came in below economists' expectations of 7.4 million jobs.

Separately, U.S. factory orders fell by 1.3%, while mortgage applications fell by 1.2%.

Overall, despite the weak economic data, investors view these developments as positive, as these figures could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut U.S. interest rates for the first time since December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the futures market is signaling a 92% probability of a quarter-point cut in US interest rates, lowering the benchmark federal funds rate from the current target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Federal Reserve, which will hold its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month, has indicated that it will focus more on the employment side of its dual inflation mandate.

Meanwhile, this week's main event will be the US jobs report for August tomorrow, Friday, at 3:30 PM Cairo time. Initial forecasts suggest that the US economy may have added 75,000 new jobs and that the country's unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%. However, economists are also focusing on the revisions.

Among the factors influencing the gold trading market, US Treasury yields have generally declined, with the benchmark 10-year note yield falling 7.2 basis points to 4.205%. The two-year note yield fell five basis points to 3.608%, while the 30-year note yield fell 7.9 basis points to 4.892%. Gold prices are sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, which can affect the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Another factor affecting gold is the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, such as the Japanese yen and the British pound. The DXY fell 0.35% to 98.05, compared to its opening level of 98.40. Overall, the dollar index has fallen about 10% this year. A weaker US dollar is beneficial for commodities denominated in the dollar, making it less expensive for foreign investors.

EURUSD Chart by TradingViewThe Gold Upward Scenario Remains the Strongest

Based on the daily chart, the overall trend for the gold price index remains strongly upward. The break of the historical $3500 per ounce resistance confirms the strength and dominance of gold bulls and their readiness for stronger record-breaking upward breakouts, provided that the current gold strength factors-global trade and geopolitical tensions, purchases by central banks, and the weak US dollar-continue.

Gold's recent gains were enough to push all technical indicators toward overbought territory. However, investors may ignore this until the reaction to tomorrow's US jobs report. In general, gold prices are on their way to a historical weekly close Tips:

Traders are advised to wait to sell gold from its highest levels to take advantage of profit-taking, rather than risking buying at record highs.

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