How Countries Globally Respond To Climate Migration

(MENAFN- Costa Rica News) In 1973, Komatsu Sakyō's speculative novel Japan Sinks caused a stir. The author imagines Japan overwhelmed by natural disasters. Secret negotiations are taking place with other countries-including Australia-to rescue the population. Translated into several languages ​​and adapted into television series, films, anime, and manga, the bestseller continues to fuel debate. More recent adaptations have softened the nationalist tones to emphasize diversity and the need for cooperation between people and between states. Reality, it seems, is increasingly becoming closer to fiction. The disasters striking the archipelago force authorities and citizens to reflect. Although climate migration is not on the agenda for Japan, many are wondering how to protect the country from natural hazards. Other countries, however, are already operating in“climate migration” mode.

Climate Migration: A Reality in Tuvalu

Tuvalu and Australia have officially announced their climate migration agreement-a first, according to Australia. The treaty, finalized in May 2024, allows Tuvaluan citizens to obtain a climate visa. It will be open to people with disabilities or health conditions ; the Australian government acknowledges that these groups are often excluded from visa programs. However, New Zealand citizens are not eligible, as the scheme prioritizes those with no other support options. Tuvalu is among the nations most threatened by climate change. According to NASA, much of its infrastructure could be underwater by 2050.

Quotas and Relocation Assistance

Under the treaty, 280 visas will be issued each year. This is much lower than the number of applicants: approximately 8,750 Tuvaluans (out of a total of 11,000) registered in the lottery launched on July 18. In other words, 80% of the population hopes to obtain a visa-not to leave in a hurry, but to ensure their safety. The visa allows free movement between Australia and Tuvalu, and grants holders the right to work and study in Australia. A random selection has been underway since July 25. The Australian Department of Home Affairs acknowledges that there won't be enough space for everyone. The ministry also guarantees support to help Tuvalu adapt to climate risks. The treaty maintains Tuvalu as an independent state, although questions remain about how that independence can be exercised in the long term.

Climate migration: What are other states proposing?

Will we see more climate migration programs? For now, the issue resonates much more in the Pacific island regions than elsewhere: 90% of the population there is concerned about climate displacement, compared to less than 50% of Americans. Australia hopes its initiative will become a model. The Maldives, the Marshall Islands, and Kiribati-each threatened by rising sea levels-want a similar program. For now, the Maldives is building artificial islands like Hulhumalé, which sits two meters above sea level. Experts still consider this solution fragile.

United States

The United States has signed several Free Association Agreements with countries threatened by submersion: the Marshall Islands , Palau, and Micronesia. Under these agreements, citizens of those states can live and work freely in the United States, but with limited access to social benefits. Another obstacle: the current US president's skepticism about the climate emergency. In March 2025, Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. challenged Donald Trump and denounced the United States' lack of commitment.

Argentina and India

In 2023, Argentina launched a humanitarian visa for Latin American citizens forced to flee their homes by a climate disaster. In India, Australia's climate visa has inspired ideas. Some in the government suggest that creating an Indian climate visa could be an effective way to improve the country's international image-and a channel to attract foreign talent.

New Zealand

In 2017, New Zealand launched a program to host climate migrants from the Pacific. The initiative was rejected by affected communities, who criticized New Zealand's policy and pressured the government to strengthen its decarbonization measures and reduce pollution at source.

Uganda and partner countries

Africa is directly threatened by climate change . Rising temperatures and flooding are forcing millions to leave their homes. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), there have been 220 million internal displacements in the last ten years. To respond to the climate emergency, several African states adopted the Kampala Ministerial Declaration (named after the Ugandan capital) on migration, environment, and climate change in 2022. It is based on a series of conventions (1951, 1969, 2009, and others) designed to support displaced populations and grant them legal protection. The challenge now is to ensure that states implement these commitments.

Are we moving toward a climate passport?

The World Bank estimates there could be 216 million climate migrants by 2050. What if the answer was to open borders? In October 2023, the German government under Chancellor Scholz considered introducing a climate passport and a climate visa. The idea is not new. As early as 2018, German experts advocated a climate passport reserved for citizens of territories at risk of disappearing.

The climate disasters of recent years have rekindled the debate, including in France, which is still grappling with the aftermath of Cyclone Chido-a storm that hit the island of Mayotte on December 14, 2024. The problem is that a climate passport is far from a consensus solution. Climate urgency clashes with political calculations and an accelerating trend toward hardening borders. Far-right movements oppose such a passport, warning that it would create a“pull effect.” Its proponents, however, emphasize the responsibilities of states: the biggest polluters are often the least affected by natural disasters. Some in Tuvalu share this view, arguing that Australia bears responsibility for marine pollution.

Climate Migrants: A New Kind of Refugee?

Should we talk about“climate refugees”? Australia says no. The country insists that its climate visa should not be confused with refugee status, which is granted only to people persecuted in their home country; that status grants them the right to asylum elsewhere. Climate migrants are not being persecuted. However, the term“climate refugee” has already entered international discourse to describe those forced to leave their country due to political unrest (as the article argues), even though the term has no legal standing. And therein lies the controversy.

Should there be legal status for climate migrants?

Opponents say no, pointing out that most people on the move resettle within their own country. International law does not recognize“climate refugees,” and the term is considered a misnomer. Others point to cases like Tuvalu-which is far from unique-and argue that creating a legal status would help preserve a people's identity, culture, and history.

This is one of the debates raised in Japan Sinks: People of Hope, a recent television adaptation of Komatsu Sakyō's novel that aired in late 2021. To preserve culture and social ties between displaced communities, policymakers in the story turn to digital solutions. Will fiction become reality in Tuvalu? In 2023, the state floated the idea of ​​”transitioning” into the metaverse to safeguard its culture. It's a strategy with strengths, but also limits (including the environmental footprint of digital technology). A perfectly green solution is difficult to achieve. Still, states acknowledge that climate migration will likely become one of the defining challenges of the coming years.-

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