Putin Pulling A Reverse Nixon On Trump

Modi will certainly be very cautious with China. He visited Japan first, stressing their strong bilateral bond. He also called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and pledged to work for peace with Moscow.

But August 31 was a sad moment for America-losing, at least partly, a crucial friend that it had spent nearly 25 years drawing closer. It also represented a setback for Modi, who has tied his political legacy to aligning with the Western camp through the Quad military pact, moving India away from its traditional policy of non-alignment.

Putin is the total winner of the day. He can frame Trump's erratic behavior as proof of influence, boasting to Xi and Modi:“I control Trump, stick with me, no need to talk with the Americans.”

Whether true or not, the narrative may seem believable, and if so, then anything can spin out of this spiel. Indeed, the next Trump-Xi summit, apparently scheduled for October, could take place under a Russian cloud. Is the US cornered? Trump now needs to prove that Putin is not in control. It could be very tricky.

If the US doesn't redress its ties with India effectively and quickly, the entire international framework that has held the world together since World War II could begin to unravel. India's sense of betrayal is felt to varying degrees by many US allies.

What many Asian diplomats find mind-boggling is the reason behind the betrayal. Reportedly, it stemmed from a testy phone call, where Trump insisted Modi nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize, as the US president had helped resolve the recent India-Pakistan clash (see here ). The damage to the US is compounded by how trivial the cause appears, casting a deep shadow over its reliability as a partner.

Russia can now boast a political victory greater than any it has achieved in Ukraine, gaining significant political leverage points from which it can upend the current world order.

China's position is a mixed bag. Its friction with the US has moved somewhat to the background, but chaos in the world order threatens its trade, its main economic driver, possibly more than Trump's tariffs. While Russia may have an interest in chaos, China could simply be looking for a distraction.

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Nothing is certain or set in stone.“The world's two most populous countries need to be friends,” Xi told Modi on Sunday (August 31), underscoring there is still a long way to go between China and India to improve their relations.

Meeting on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, Xi reportedly told Modi that the two countries could be good neighbors and play a key role in the Global South.

The Chinese press has emphasized that the visit comes at a pivotal moment, as both countries work to resolve long-standing disputes and seek common ground amid growing strains in their relationship with the United States – the proverbial elephant in Beijing's room.

Beijing is also using the SCO summit as an opportunity to showcase its leadership and build solidarity among the Global South amid mounting geopolitical challenges. It's a very different narrative from the one coming out of Washington.

This article first appeared on Appia Institute and is republished with kind permission

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