Bangladesh To Witness A Fierce Battle Between BNP And NCP In General Elections In February 26

(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) By Nitya Chakraborty

Bangladesh is finally going for national elections in February 2026 ending all speculations in the political circles in Dhaka in the last one year since the abdication of the earlier Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power on August 5, 2024. Chief Adviser of the interim government Dr. Muhammad Yunus announced the elections in next February officially on the anniversary day of the fall of Awami League government. Now the Election Commission will follow it up by announcing the exact dates and the guidelines.

The last general elections were held in January 2024. The Awami League won the 2024 general elections following a record low voter turnout amidst big controversy about the conduct of the poll. The AL league formed the Government again under the Prime Ministership of Sheikh Hasina. The United States Department of State stated after the results were out that the election was not free and fair and the United Kingdom's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office termed the election lacking the preconditions of democracy. According to The Economist, through this election,“Bangladesh effectively became a one-party state”. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party boycotted the polls. Indian Government took the election results as valid and normal.

Former Prime Minister and the BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia was sentenced to prison for five years on 8 February 2018, for her involvement in the Zia Orphanage corruption case. The sentence was then modified to 10 years. Zia's successor as chair of the party, her son Tarique Rahman, was also found guilty of criminal conspiracy and multiple counts of murder for a grenade attack in 2004 that injured Hasina and killed 24 people. He was sentenced to life in prison. As such, he was barred from running for office. Now Khaleda Zia, after coming back to Dhaka after her treatment in London, has taken charge of the party. BNP has announced that he will contest the parliamentary polls. So if BNP wins, there is a probability that Khaleda Zia will be the Prime Minister again. Her son Tarique Rahman, the second in command is based in London. He will be back shortly after the cases involving him are disposed of.

As the preparations of the political parties start in right earnest after the formal announcement, the BNP which formed the government three times earlier is placed in the most comfortable position. The Party has branches in every rural villages and active members. The BNP has close connections both with a good section of Bangladesh army as also bureaucracy. BNP has established and strengthened its links with both the USA and China. Presently, the party's links with China are very close.

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The main rival of the BNP is the new party of the anti discrimination students struggle body National Citizen Party NCP). This party was set up on February 28 this year. Only five months old, the party has not yet spread its organization to every level of the villages as compared to BNP. But the NCP leaders are popular among the young generation. On the basis of their programme of building a New Bangladesh announced on August 3, the NCP leaders are campaigning in a big way. They will put candidates in all the constituencies though, there is every possibility that after some time, the NCP may agree to align with other anti-BNP forces. The NCP has a pro people programme relating to workers and peasants. But they are out and out anti India since they feel that India helped the AL PM Sheikh Hasina to survive and continue her anti-people activities. The NCP contains both fringe left elements, some of them pro-Chinese as also fundamentalist elements who have broken away with Jamaat- e Islami. The NCP considers BNP equally a fascist force like Awami League.

The former ruling party Awami League has been banned from taking part in the 2026 elections. The Awami League leaders are talking of legal intervention but the possibility of their inclusion in 2026 polls is nil as the laws have already been amended. The AL can not expect much assistance from international human rights or legal groups. But the Awami League has support base. A recent opinion poll said that AL may get about 15 per cent of the votes if allowed to fight elections. This is a substantial figure considering the fact that Awami League is working under repressive environment and their supporters are not functioning openly.

For the first time, since the 1991 general election, the BNP has decided to participate in the elections on its own, without being in alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami. In an interview given in August 2024, BNP general secretary Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir confirmed that the party had broken off its alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami. Reports about a renewal of BNP-Jamaat alliance resurfaced following Khaleda Zia being visited by the Jamaat Amir Shafiqur Rahman in London in April 2025, but last month, BNP representative Salahuddin Ahmed reiterated that the party will no longer seek alliance with Jamat-e-Islami. In fact Jamaat leaders strongly condemned BNP a few days back and called the party having fascist traits like Awami League.

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The 350 members of the Jatiya Sangsad (Parliament) consist of 300 directly elected seats using first-past-the-post voting (FPTP) in single-member constituencies, and an additional 50 seats reserved for women. The reserved seats are elected proportionally by the elected members. Each parliament sits for a five-year term. The Election Commission and the concerned committee on electoral reforms will shortly come out with revamped guidelines with the objective of expanding democracy. The small parties have been talking of proportional representation for a long time but the two big parties BNP and AL have been opposing that. It is to be seen what are the final recommendations on electoral reforms. More than 40 political parties are registered in Bangladesh. But the three parties which matter in the February elections are BNP, NCP and Jamaat.

As the political mood stands now, one opinion poll has put BNP at the top with 37 per cent and NCP with 15 per cent, Jamaat at 5 per cent. This is too early since the NCP is sure to improve its voting. Further, if BNP and NCP opt for their respective alliances, then the NCP front will get a boost with its tie up with Jamaat. Chief Adviser Dr. Yunus is closer to NCP-Jamaat combo compared to the BNP. His close sources say that he will not be actively associated with any political combination. But nothing can be ruled out as Dr. Yunus has tasted political power and he is enjoying it. If there is a hung Parliament after February 2026 elections, Dr. Yunus may emerge as a consensus candidate, many analysts believe. (IPA Service )

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