How Will Australia Grocery Retail Market Size, Share & Demand Evolve By 2033?

(MENAFN- IMARC Group) The latest report by IMARC Group,“ Australia Grocery Retail Market Size, Share, Trends and Forecast by Product and Distribution Channel, 2025-2033 ,” provides an in-depth analysis of the Australia grocery retail market. The report also includes competitor and regional analysis, along with a breakdown of segments within the industry. The Australia grocery retail market size reached USD 52.0 Billion in 2024. Looking forward, the market is expected to reach USD 77.3 Billion by 2033, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 4.51% during 2025–2033.

Base Year: 2024
Forecast Years: 2025–2033
Historical Years: 2019–2024
Market Size in 2024: USD 52.0 Billion
Market Forecast in 2033: USD 77.3 Billion
Market Growth Rate (2025–2033): 4.51%

Australia Grocery Retail Market Overview
The market is driven by rapid population growth, rising consumer demand for convenience, the expansion of private-label brands, competitive pricing strategies, increased health-consciousness, surging sustainability initiatives, rapid e-commerce expansion, instore technological innovations, and supply chain optimization. Major players are responding to these trends by improving digital capabilities, expanding product ranges, and introducing health-oriented and sustainable products. The dominance of leading chains like Woolworths, Coles, and ALDI remains, but disruption continues from discount and online grocery channels.

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How Is AI Transforming the Grocery Retail Market in Australia?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is significantly transforming the grocery retail market in Australia by enhancing operational efficiency, improving customer experiences, and enabling smarter inventory management. Major retailers are leveraging AI-driven technologies such as predictive analytics, automated checkout systems, and personalized recommendation engines to streamline supply chains and reduce waste. AI is also being used to analyze consumer behavior, optimize pricing strategies, and manage stock levels in real time, ensuring that shelves are stocked with the right products at the right time. This technological shift is helping Australian grocery retailers remain competitive, adapt to changing consumer demands, and create more seamless, data-driven shopping experiences both online and in-store.

Australia Grocery Retail Market Trends

• Increased preference for locally produced and Australian-made goods, fueled by provenance awareness, sustainability, and support for the local economy.
• Rapid expansion of e-commerce and online grocery shopping, driven by demand for convenience and innovations in delivery and click-and-collect services.
• Robust growth and diversification of private-label (store brand) offerings as value-conscious consumers seek affordable options during economic uncertainty.
• Growth in demand for health-oriented and sustainable products including organic, plant-based foods, and items with eco-friendly packaging.
• Retailers investing in supply chain improvements to support freshness, availability, and geographic reach, overcoming Australia's vast distances and logistical challenges.
• Increased competition and price sensitivity with consumers frequently seeking deals, promotions, and best-value across retailers.
• Digital innovation in-store and online, including apps, self-checkout, and personalized promotions, enhancing overall shopping experience.

Australia Grocery Retail Market Drivers

• Fast-paced urbanization, population growth, and multicultural demographics driving higher grocery demand, especially in metropolitan areas.
• Busy lifestyles and demand for convenience spurring growth in ready-to-eat meals, smaller store formats, and same-day delivery options.
• Health and sustainability concerns influencing product choices and retail strategies.
• Aggressive competitiveness among major and emerging players, promoting continual improvement in customer service, supply chain, and pricing.

Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges:

• Complex and geographically dispersed supply chains raise distribution and inventory costs.
• Margin pressures due to intense competition, discounting, and rising input costs.
• Adapting omnichannel strategies and technology investments pose integration and cost hurdles for mid-tier and regional operators.

Opportunities:

• Further leveraging digital platforms for omnichannel sales, loyalty, and data-driven marketing.
• Expanding premium, health, and specialty product lines.
• Deepening community engagement and local sourcing to appeal to provenance-focused customers.

Australia Grocery Retail Market Segmentation
By Product:

• Food and Beverages (fresh food, packaged food, beverages)
• Non-Food Items (household cleaning, personal care, pet care, etc.)

By Distribution Channel:

• Hypermarkets and Supermarkets
• Convenience Stores
• Discount Stores
• Online
• Others

By Region:

• Australia Capital Territory & New South Wales
• Victoria & Tasmania
• Queensland
• Northern Territory & Southern Australia
• Western Australia

Latest Development in the Industry

• AI-powered smart trolleys : Coles began trialing interactive AI-enabled trolleys in January 2025 at its Richmond Traders store in Melbourne. Equipped with sensors, an in‐built scale, screens, and payment terminals, these trolleys let customers scan items, view aisle info, get real-time cart totals, and pay without queuing.
• Advanced AI-robotics fulfilment centre : Coles launched a new AI-driven customer fulfilment centre in Wetherill Park, Sydney. Operating with over 700 robots in partnership with Ocado, it processes more than 10,000 orders daily and holds 3 million items, improving online availability and reducing substitutions.
• AI-generated recipe concierge service : Melbourne's Chadstone Market Pavilion unveiled Australia's first generative‐AI Food Concierge. Customers receive tailored recipe suggestions and ingredient mapping within the centre-helping reduce decision fatigue and food waste-via a trial tablet-based system.
• Growing investment in AI agents and forecasting : Over 74% of Australian retailers plan to increase AI spending, with 77% viewing AI agents as crucial for competition. AI agents are being deployed to automate customer support, demand forecasting, loyalty optimization, and inventory decisions across channels.

Key Highlights of the Report

• Comprehensive historical and forecast market analysis (2019–2033)
• In-depth segmentation by storage size, end use, and region
• Detailed review of trends, drivers, challenges, and the competitive landscape
• Focus on sustainability, digitization, and evolving customer segments
• Standard features include 24/7 access, climate control, and flexible lease terms

Q&A Section
Q1: What drives growth in Australia's grocery retail market?
A1: Key drivers include population growth, demand for convenience, health and sustainability trends, e-commerce expansion, and innovations in retail technology.

Q2: What are the leading retail formats in this market?
A2: Hypermarkets/supermarkets, discount stores, and fast-growing online grocery channels are most prominent, supported by regional chains and local grocers.

Q3: What challenges do Australian grocers face?
A3: Supply chain complexity, geographic distribution, intense competition, and shifting consumer expectations around health and sustainability.

Q4: Which trends are most reshaping the industry?
A4: E-commerce growth, private label expansion, provenance/local sourcing, and digital omnichannel strategies.

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