Gold Analysis 30/07: Prepare For A New Launchpad (Chart)

(MENAFN- Daily Forex) Today's Gold Analysis Overview:

• The overall Gold Trend: Bearish bias.
• Today's Gold Support Levels: $3300 – $3260 – $3190 per ounce.
• Today's Gold Resistance Levels: $3355 – $3380 – $3420 per ounce.

Today's Gold Trading Signals:

• Sell gold from the resistance level of $3370 with a target of $3270 and a stop loss of $3400.
• Buy gold from the support level of $3270 with a target of $3400 and a stop loss of $3240.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:

During yesterday's trading session, the gold price index attempted to rebound upwards to avoid collapsing below the $3300 per ounce level, which would support a further bearish shift in the trend. However, the upward rebound was weak, not exceeding the $3334 per ounce level. According to performance across gold trading platforms, the gold price index remained close to its three-week low, as indications of easing trade tensions and a stronger US dollar reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Following these trading activities, investors are now closely monitoring ongoing talks between the United States and China, amid expectations of a 90-day extension to the August 12th tariff pause deadline. This comes during a pivotal week for President Trump's trade agenda, with a separate deadline looming this Friday for other countries to clinch a deal, following an agreement announced with the European Union on Sunday that includes a 15% tariff on most European goods. Talks are still underway with other major trading partners, including Canada and South Korea.

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Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on Wednesday at 9:00 PM Cairo time and is widely expected to leave US interest rates unchanged, although markets still anticipate a possible rate cut in September. Investors are also awaiting a batch of US economic data this week, including the PCE price index and the nonfarm payrolls report.

Moreover, technical indicators are turning downwards. Based on the daily timeframe chart, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is around a reading of 47, below the midline, which supports the downward shift. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are turning downwards and have more time and room to move towards stronger bearish levels before reaching oversold territory. Gold analysts' forecasts suggest that gold investors may take advantage of the recent price decline to establish a new buying base for gold. The important stations for this would be $3290, $3260, and $3220 per ounce, respectively.

EURUSD Chart by TradingViewCautious stability for the US dollar

According to forex currency market trading, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, has stabilized above 98.6 after rising by 1% in the previous session. This was largely supported by the Euro's weakness following a new trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, which is viewed as favoring the US economy. The agreement, which imposes a major 15% tariff on EU goods, has drawn sharp criticism from European leaders.

France described the agreement as unbalanced, while German Chancellor Merz warned that it could cause significant harm to the German economy. President Trump also confirmed on Monday that countries refusing to negotiate separate trade agreements could face tariffs ranging from 15% to 20%, a significantly higher rate than the 10% set in April.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep US interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting today, although investors will closely watch for indications of a potential rate cut in September. Market participants are also awaiting key economic data this week, including the PCE inflation report and nonfarm payrolls, for further indications of the US economy's health Decline in US Treasury Yields:

Among the factors influencing the gold trading market is the decline in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield to 4.36% on Tuesday, as financial markets assessed US borrowing expectations amidst an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Primary Treasury dealers expect the United States to refrain from increasing auction sizes for the upcoming third quarter, consistent with their previous estimates, amid close scrutiny of US borrowing following debt ceiling volatilities and an expansionary fiscal bill passed by US President Trump. Meanwhile, the United States and the European Union have agreed on flexible terms for future trade, but investors emphasized uncertainty regarding the disputes as the opposing parties began discussing the fine details of the agreement. Broader tariffs, including higher rates on other major US trading partners, are set to be applied on Friday.

In the meantime, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep US interest rates unchanged today as inflationary risks stemming from tariffs coincide with evidence of a strong economy. Finally, interest rate futures reflect bets on two rate cuts this year.

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