Is Taiwan Doing Enough To Repel A Chinese Invasion?

Latest stories

US lands African resources with version of Chinese-Russian scheme

Marcos leaves empty-handed in face-to-face with Trump To change or not to change in Xi's China

That gap deepened after several safety incidents during the exercise. A US-made M1A2 tank collided with a civilian vehicle . A missile transport vehicle blocked traffic while turning. An armored car flipped over in Taitung , injuring soldiers.

No lives were lost, but the string of mishaps raised an uncomfortable question: if basic coordination breaks down in practice runs, how would it hold under attack? Critics pointed to weaknesses in logistics, communication, and execution-saying that appearances had improved, but fundamentals remained shaky.

Han Kuang 2025 expanded civilian participation, introduced updated systems and signaled stronger political will. But confidence lags behind ambition. Planning still focuses on conventional military engagements, even as the more likely threats-cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage-remain underdeveloped.

The island has shown it is willing to prepare. Whether that preparation is enough remains in question.

US support gap

Taiwan's military depends on the United States. Over 90% of its key weapons come from Americ , and its strategy is built on the idea that the US will show up if war breaks out.

In 2025, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth named Taiwan the Pentagon's“animating scenario,” putting it at the center of US global planning. A classified directive now tells the US military to focus more forces like submarines, bombers, drones and special ops to deter a Chinese cross-strait attack.

But there's a big gap between what's said and what's done. Hegseth told allies at Shangri-La that the US would“fight and win” if deterrence failed . But there's still no joint command, no large training together, and no clear plan to fight as one team.

Admiral Mark Montgomery said 500 US troops are now in Taiwan -10 times more than in 2021-but they're just rotating trainers and are not believed to be a combat force. He even said it should double to 1,000. That's a signal, but not enough to change outcomes.

Yes, the US Congress has backed Taiwan with real money. In FY2025, it approved $300 million in support, then $500 million for FY2026 . It also passed an $8.1 billion Indo-Pacific bill , with $2 billion set aside just for Taiwan.

Lawmakers keep voting in favor-most bills pass with over 300 House votes. But most of these efforts are stuck in slow delivery. Training programs and joint planning still haven't happened. Equipment orders are delayed. Taiwan buys, but it doesn't receive.

This relationship is stuck. It runs on delays, speeches, and symbolic help. That might build headlines-but it doesn't build a war plan. The US says it stands with Taiwan, but the real structure to fight together still doesn't exist.

Meanwhile, the enemy is not waiting. China runs exercises all the time. It prepares for war more often-and more seriously-than Taiwan or its partners. Right now, we are not keeping pace.

Talisman Sabre rattling

Talisman Sabre 2025 was the largest military exercise in the Indo-Pacific this year. It involved 35,000 troops from 19 countries and 3 observers, training across land, sea, air, cyber, and space domains .

The scenario was clear: a high-end conflict in East Asia, modeled on a potential Taiwan contingency. The US deployed its Typhon missile system to the region for the first time, while Australia launched HIMARS rockets in simulated counterstrikes.

But Taiwan was not invited. The country most likely to be attacked and the one the whole exercise quietly centers on was excluded. While Japan and the Philippines trained as frontline participants and countries like the UK, France, Germany, India, and Singapore joined in supporting roles, Taiwan was left outside the coordination table.

This disconnect carries real risk. A coalition may look strong on paper, but without practical planning that includes Taiwan, coordination in a crisis could fail. Military forces from across the Indo-Pacific are building habits and protocols together-while Taiwan is still preparing alone.

Talisman Sabre was meant to signal readiness to Beijing. But it should also raise concern in Taipei. Taiwan's security is central to regional planning, yet it remains politically isolated from the exercises that matter most. That silence is not strategy. It is a vulnerability.

Parallel plans, shared deterrence

Despite all the improvements, Taiwan is still getting ready on its own. There is no joint plan with allies for handling a breakdown in civil order. No shared response for economic attacks. No coordination for protecting digital systems. That silence feels familiar. It is what Ukraine faced when the war began and partners waited to see what Washington would do .

This cannot happen again. The US will play a key role, but it cannot be the only one. Regional defense must take the lead, with US support as a partner, not a trigger. Allies keep preparing for a final large-scale war but are still ignoring the early warning signs that are already here.

China is testing Taiwan daily through pressure, interference and slow-moving threats. Yet Indo-Pacific countries have not made clear commitments. Taiwan still does not know who will help, how or when.

Taiwan's numbers show how urgent this is. The 2025 defense budget was about $20.25. That is just eight% of China's official defense spending and only 5% if we count estimates of China's full military budget at $390 billion.

Even if Taiwan reaches its goal of spending 3% of its GDP in 2026, the number will still be under $25 billion-less than what China adds in a single year. Bigger budgets alone will not fix the problem. What matters more is faster coordination and stronger partnerships.