(MENAFN) A powerful earthquake exceeding magnitude 7 is likely to strike the Sea of Japan within the next three decades, a Japanese government panel has cautioned.

The Earthquake Research Committee, part of the national disaster forecasting framework, estimates a 16% to 18% probability of such a major quake hitting waters off Japan’s Kinki to Hokuriku regions within 30 years, according to a broadcaster.

Risk levels vary by area: the committee places the chance at just 4% to 6% in the western part of the Sea of Japan, while the eastern waters face a higher likelihood of 12% to 14%.

"The probability is so high that it would not be surprising if a major earthquake were to occur in our lifetime," said Hirata Naoshi, the committee’s chair.

The fault line north of the Noto Peninsula, which triggered a destructive earthquake on January 1, 2024, is not expected to produce another major tremor in the near future, the panel added.
The likelihood of another large quake occurring soon in that same fault zone is now considered close to zero.

Naoshi also warned that strong seismic activity in the region could unleash powerful tsunami waves with little warning along Japan's Sea of Japan coastline.

The committee is currently conducting further seismic risk assessments for the offshore areas stretching from Niigata Prefecture to Hokkaido.

This alert follows a separate advisory issued earlier in the week by Japan's Meteorological Agency, which reported over 400 earthquakes measuring intensity 1 or higher on Japan’s 7-point seismic scale. These quakes have been recorded in the waters near the Tokara island chain in Kagoshima Prefecture, southwestern Japan, since last week.

The agency urged local residents to remain vigilant, noting that the recent cluster of tremors is occurring at a significantly accelerated pace compared to past seismic activity.

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