Will Ukraine Or Russia Win The War?

2025-06-03 10:08:45

(MENAFN- Asia Times) After Ukraine's attack on Russian air bases, some pundits are writing that Ukraine is winning the war. At least one American newspaper headlined the surprise attack as Russia's“Pearl Harbor,” evidently forgetting the ultimate result.

In any case, the actual ground war in Ukraine is increasingly favoring the Russians, who are slowly tightening the noose on Kyiv's forces.

The latest drone attack is Ukraine's emerging strategy to raise the cost of the war to the Russians, hoping either that they will get a better deal from Moscow, or more likely, persuade their American and European sponsors to actually join the fighting.

The new strategy first took shape in the invasion of Kursk in August 2024, a venture that cost Ukraine approximately 75,000 troops killed or wounded. At the same time, Ukraine began launching heavy drone strikes inside Russian territory as well as on the battlefield.

These attacks, at least those on the battlefield, forced the Russians to change tactics and revert to smaller unit operations that were more survivable, and it certainly slowed down the pace of operations for Russia's army.

Conversely, the Russian strategy is to grind down Ukraine's army and, wherever possible, trap them in cauldrons, cutting off their resupply and rotation lines of support. The Russian strategy appears to be unaffected, at least so far, by Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, or by wasteful operations in places such as Kursk, which actually support Russia's military objective.

As matters now stand, on the backside of the now-failed Kursk operation, Russia has expanded its operations in Sumy, a Ukrainian province adjacent to Kursk. Sumy offers long-range potential for a land assault on Kyiv, should Russia be able to consolidate its operations in Kursk and further weaken Ukraine's army defenses.

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Press Service, bodies of the killed residents lie on the ground following a Russian missile attack that killed at least civilia civilians in Sumy, Ukraine, Sunday, April 13, 2025.

Some Russian mil-bloggers are expressing the view that even if Russia and Ukraine sign some form of“peace agreement,” guerrilla attacks on Russian territory and on their forces in Ukraine likely will continue for the foreseeable future.

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