What India's Indus Treaty Suspension Really Means

2025-05-03 02:01:02

(MENAFN- Asia Times) The Hindu Kush–Himalaya–Karakoram mountain range-often referred to as the“Third Pole” due to its vast glacial reserves-acts as a critical freshwater source for people in South Asia, especially in India and Pakistan.

These ice reserves feed into rivers that flow downstream to India and Pakistan, sustaining the ecosystems, agriculture and domestic water needs of both nations. However, with the rapidly accelerating impacts of climate change, this region has become increasingly vulnerable.

According to studies comparing the periods 2000–2009 and 2010–2019, the rate of glacial melt has increased by 65%, resulting in increased water availability in the short term, but posing serious long-term risks of water scarcity and erratic flow regimes.

For Pakistan, the stakes could not be higher. The country's economy remains largely agrarian, and attempts to diversify into industrial sectors have been undermined by low foreign direct investment, persistent political instability and deteriorating security conditions.

Consequently, the agricultural sector-heavily reliant on the Indus River system-continues to support the majority of livelihoods. Farmers and smallholder agribusinesses are highly dependent on both canal irrigation and groundwater extraction.

However, in many areas, groundwater is being extracted at unsustainable rates, with aquifers showing alarming levels of depletion. The continued over-extraction threatens not only future water availability but also the long-term sustainability of the country's agriculture.

In this context, India's recent decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in“abeyance” has raised alarm bells in Pakistan, with officials in Islamabad declaring the suspension an“act of war.” The feasibility of such a suspension, and more importantly, its consequences, must be assessed in detail, starting with the provisions of the treaty itself.

Signed in 1960 between President Ayub and Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, the treaty explicitly gave the waters of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan and the eastern rivers' waters (Ravi, Sutlej, Beas) to India. Essentially, the treaty resulted in the allocation of 20% of the Indus River system water to India while 80% went to Pakistan.

While India is entitled to use its full share of water, about 2 million acre-feet of water remains unutilized from the River Ravi, flowing into Pakistan. Four of the six rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) originate entirely in India, while two rivers (Indus and Sutlej) originate in Tibet but flow through India before entering Pakistan.

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