Burnt Allies: Japan, S Korea Toe Cautious Line After Trump Tariffs

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During Trump's first term in office, Abe's policy goals aligned closely with the US: transforming Japan's security posture to make it a serious military and diplomatic power. Japan increased military spending, lifted arms export restrictions and deepened ties with India and Australia.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida continued to raise Japan's security profile from 2021-24, again increasing military spending and taking a tough line on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He emphasised“Europe today could be Asia tomorrow”.

His successor, Shigeru Ishiba , had a successful summit with Trump in February, immediately after his inauguration. The joint statement reaffirmed US security guarantees to Japan, including over the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by China.

Japan also agreed to import American liquefied natural gas, and later committed to working with South Korea to develop a US$44 billion plan to export LNG from Alaska.

However, these positive developments do not mean the relationship is on firm ground.

In early March, Trump complained the US-Japan security agreement signed in 1960 was“one-sided” and a top administration official again called for Japan to increase its defence spending to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) – a huge increase for a country facing serious demographic and fiscal pressures.

Reports also emerged the US was considering cancelling a new joint headquarters in Japan aimed at deeper integration between US and Japanese forces.

South Korea: extremely vulnerable on trade

South Korea faces similar pressures. Ties between the two countries were strained during Trump's first term over his demand South Korea increase the amount it pays to host US forces by nearly 400% . A 2021 agreement restored some stability but left Seoul deeply worried about the future of the alliance.

Trump speaks to US troops stationed at Osan Air Base south of Seoul in 2019. Photo: Ed Jones / AFP pool / AP via The Conversation

South Korea's acting president, Choi Sang-mok, has expressed a desire to strengthen ties with the US, though Trump has reportedly been cool to his advances .

With a $66 billion trade surplus with the US, South Korea is considered the country most vulnerable to trade risk with the Trump administration, according to a Swiss research group.

Trump's past suggestions that both South Korea and Japan develop nuclear weapons or pay for US nuclear protection has also rattled some nerves. As confidence in the US alliance erodes, both countries are engaging in an urgent public debate about the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons.

Tensions moving forward

Potential for conflict is on the horizon. For example, Tokyo and Washington are set to renegotiate the deal that dictates how much Japan pays to host US troops next year.

Both allies pay huge sums to host US bases. South Korea will pay $1.14 billion in 2026, and Japan pays $1.72 billion annually.

A trade war could also prompt a reassessment of the costs of US efforts to decouple from China, potentially leading to closer economic ties between Japan, South Korea and China. The three countries have agreed to accelerate talks on a trilateral free trade agreement , which had been on hold since 2019.