OPEC Reference Basket Drops -- Report

(MENAFN- Kuwait News Agency (KUNA)) VIENNA, Dec 11 (KUNA) -- In November, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $1.47, or 2.0%, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $72.98/b, according to the OPEC secretariat general's latest regular report issued on Wednesday.
The ICE brent front-month contract dropped by $1.98, or 2.6%, m-o-m, to average $73.40/b, while NYMEX WTI dropped by $2.02, or 2.8%, m-o-m, to average $69.54/b. (The ICE Brent index represents the average price of trading in the prevailing North Sea physical market for the relevant delivery month.)
GME Oman front-month contract dropped by $2.55, or 3.4%, m-o-m, to average $72.48/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first month spread remained little changed, widening marginally by 4آ¢/b, m-o-m, to average $3.86/b. (GME is the premier international energy futures and commodities exchange in the Middle East).
The forward curves of oil futures prices flattened further, with the nearest time spreads contracting but remaining in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers raised their net long positions but maintained a bearish stance on oil prices.
World Economy:

The world economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.0% for 2025. The US economic growth forecast for 2024 is revised up slightly to 2.8%, reflecting robust growth in 2H24. For 2025, the US growth forecast is also revised up slightly to 2.2%. Japanآ's growth forecast remains unchanged at 0.1% in 2024, but for 2025, it is revised up slightly to 1.0%. The Eurozoneآ's economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 0.8%, and 1.2%, respectively.
Chinaآ's economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.7% for 2025. Indiaآ's economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 6.8%, and 6.3%, respectively. The economic growth forecast for Brazil is revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2024, but remains at 2.1% for 2025. Russiaآ's economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.5% for 2024 and 1.7% for 2025.
World Oil Demand:

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down by 210 tb/d from the previous monthآ's assessment to 1.6 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y). This minor adjustment is mainly due to updated data for 1Q24, 2Q24 and 3Q24. In the OECD, oil demand is expected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to expand by close to 1.5 mb/d in 2024. Global oil demand growth for 2025 is also revised down by 90 tb/d from the previous monthآ's assessment to 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y.
OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to expand by 1.3 mb/d.

World Oil Supply:

Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the DoC) is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2024, revised up slightly from last monthآ's assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US and Canada. For 2025, the non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast is expected to grow by 1.1 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month.
Growth is anticipated to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in
the DoC are forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2024 to average 8.3 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 80 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2025 to average 8.4 mb/d. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC increased by 0.32 mb/d in November compared with the previous month, averaging about 40.67 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations:

In November, refinery margins rose further to show gains for the second consecutive month in key trading hubs. An improvement in product buying interest and lower feedstock prices underpinned product markets across regions despite rising refinery runs at the end of the heavy refinery maintenance season. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), unplanned outages at secondary units led to upward pressure on US product crack spreads at the middle and bottom sections of the barrel. At the same time, diesel markets in Europe strengthened due to colder weather and rising heating requirements, while a boost in transport fuel loadings in China ahead of a tax rebate cut, effective from 1 December, provided further support. Global refinery intake began to recover in November, with the end of the heavy refinery turnaround season, rising by 1.3 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 80.2 mb/d, representing a y-o-y increase of 169 tb/d.
Balance of Supply and Demand:

Demand for DoC crude (i.e. crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the previous assessment, to stand at 42.4 mb/d in 2024. This is around 0.3 mb/d higher than the 2023 estimate. Demand for DoC crude in 2025 is revised down by around 0.4 mb/d from the previous monthآ's assessment to stand at 42.7 mb/d, around 0.3 mb/d higher than the estimate. (end)

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