The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) For The US Declined In September

"Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board . "Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers' outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above. Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US inched up by 0.1% in September 2024 to 112.9 (2016=100), after a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in August. The CEI increased by 0.9% in the six-month period ending September 2024, higher than its 0.5% growth rate over the previous six-month period. The CEI's component indicators-payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production-are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales contributed positively to the index in September and slightly more than offset a decline in industrial production.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US declined by 0.3% to 118.9 (2016=100) in September 2024, after no change in August. The LAG's six-month growth rate turned negative, showing a 0.2% contraction over the six-month period ending in September 2024, after a 1.1% increase over the six-month period from March 2023 to September 2024.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, November 21, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®
(LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates-or "leads"-turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are:

• Average weekly hours in manufacturing
• Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
• Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
• ISM® Index of New Orders
• Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
• Building permits for new private housing units
• S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices
• Leading Credit IndexTM
• Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
• Average consumer expectations for business conditions

The four components of the
Coincident Economic Index® for the US are:

• Payroll employment
• Personal income less transfer payments
• Manufacturing and trade sales
• Industrial production

To access data, please visit:

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's AheadTM. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard

SOURCE The Conference Board

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