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Survey shows Quarter of Ukrainians in EU don’t intend on going back home
(MENAFN) A new survey from the ifo Institute reveals a significant shift in the intentions of Ukrainian refugees residing in the European Union, indicating that a growing number plan to remain abroad even after the conflict with Russia concludes. Launched in June 2022, the study involved collaboration with the researcher Verian and spanned two years, consistently polling participants about their current locations and future return plans.
The findings show that nearly 25 percent of Ukrainian refugees intend to settle outside of Ukraine for the long term, while an additional 25 percent remain undecided about their future. This marks a notable increase from the initial stages of displacement; shortly after fleeing their homeland, only 10 percent expressed the desire to remain abroad long-term. Over time, this figure has steadily climbed, increasing by an average of 1.6 percentage points every 100 days, in contrast to a 2.7 percentage point decrease in the actual return rate.
Initially, nearly 60 percent of refugees aimed to return to Ukraine as soon as it was safe to do so. However, this sentiment has significantly waned, with the number of those wishing to return dropping by an average of 4.7 percentage points every 100 days. As of late 2023, around 35 percent of Ukrainian refugees still express a desire to go back once conditions allow, but only 4 percent plan to return in the near future, regardless of security concerns. Interestingly, about 11 percent of the refugees have already made the journey back to Ukraine.
Panu Poutvaara, Director of the ifo Center for Migration Research, highlighted these trends, suggesting that the protracted nature of the conflict and the evolving circumstances in Europe have influenced refugees' decisions about their long-term futures. As the war continues, the prospect of settling permanently in the EU seems increasingly appealing for many Ukrainians who once planned to return home. This shift not only affects the individuals involved but also has broader implications for the demographic landscape and policies in the host countries.
The findings show that nearly 25 percent of Ukrainian refugees intend to settle outside of Ukraine for the long term, while an additional 25 percent remain undecided about their future. This marks a notable increase from the initial stages of displacement; shortly after fleeing their homeland, only 10 percent expressed the desire to remain abroad long-term. Over time, this figure has steadily climbed, increasing by an average of 1.6 percentage points every 100 days, in contrast to a 2.7 percentage point decrease in the actual return rate.
Initially, nearly 60 percent of refugees aimed to return to Ukraine as soon as it was safe to do so. However, this sentiment has significantly waned, with the number of those wishing to return dropping by an average of 4.7 percentage points every 100 days. As of late 2023, around 35 percent of Ukrainian refugees still express a desire to go back once conditions allow, but only 4 percent plan to return in the near future, regardless of security concerns. Interestingly, about 11 percent of the refugees have already made the journey back to Ukraine.
Panu Poutvaara, Director of the ifo Center for Migration Research, highlighted these trends, suggesting that the protracted nature of the conflict and the evolving circumstances in Europe have influenced refugees' decisions about their long-term futures. As the war continues, the prospect of settling permanently in the EU seems increasingly appealing for many Ukrainians who once planned to return home. This shift not only affects the individuals involved but also has broader implications for the demographic landscape and policies in the host countries.
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