Study shows which nations are most vulnerable to restrictions

(MENAFN) A recent study conducted by the Sino-Russian Laboratory for Assessing the Consequences of Intercountry Trade Wars has shed light on the varying degrees of vulnerability among global economies to large-scale economic sanctions. The study, carried out in early 2024 at China’s National Supercomputing Center, utilized mathematical modeling to assess the potential impacts of a complete trade blockade on 19 major economies.

According to the findings reported by the Russian news outlet Vedomosti, while all countries would experience economic contraction under such circumstances, the severity of the impact varies significantly. Notably, the research suggests that the United States, Russia, and China could withstand a full trade blockade with relatively minor damage to their gross domestic product (GDP), with projected GDP declines of 2.3 percent, 3.5 percent, and 3.1 percent, respectively.

Conversely, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom emerge as the most vulnerable to such sanctions, with their economies forecasted to suffer significant contractions of 8.1 percent, 7 percent, and 5.7 percent, respectively. Other countries facing substantial economic downturns include South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, Italy, and the United Kingdom.

The study also highlights variations in vulnerability among other nations, with Australia, Indonesia, and Japan expected to experience GDP contractions of 3.7-3.8 percent, positioning them as comparatively less susceptible to trade sanctions. In contrast, India, Brazil, and Canada are projected to face more substantial economic declines of 4 percent, 4.2 percent, and 5.5 percent, respectively.

These findings underscore the complex dynamics of international trade relations and the potential ramifications of trade disputes and sanctions on global economic stability.



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