(MENAFN- Trend News Agency) Though the Karabakh issue may seem settled, thequestion of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan remainsunresolved. Despite three years of negotiations between Yerevan andBaku, a peace agreement has yet to be reached, largely due to NikolPashinyan's inconsistent position. While the Armenian PM sendsencouraging signals to Baku, he's infamous for saying one thing anddoing the opposite. It appears that Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Russia,the EU, and the US, are now forced to play the game of"Understanding Pashinyan".
Recently, Pashinyan made several statements in parliament thathint at progress in pursuing a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Heaffirmed Armenia's readiness to speed up one of the main aspects ofthe peace deal - border delimitation. Specifically, he mentionedthat Armenia is open to initiating the border delimitation processwith four Azerbaijani villages currently under Armenian control butrecognized as part of Azerbaijan.
Moreover, Pashinyan reiterated that regional issues, such asborders and communications, should be resolved directly betweenArmenia and Azerbaijan, without third-party intervention. However,this didn't deter him from heading to Brussels for discussions withAntony Blinken and Ursula von der Leyen on these very regionalmatters, despite supposedly not requiring the involvement of thirdcountries.
To understand what Pashinyan truly thinks and wants, it'snecessary to take a broader look at the situation in which theArmenian Prime Minister finds himself. Armenia is currently in anextremely challenging situation. Four factors stand out:
- reconciliation efforts with Azerbaijan and Türkiye;
- strengthening ties with Western partners;
- crisis in relations with Russia;
- the imperative to drive Armenia's economic growth forward.
Pashinyan's contradictory statements and actions are areflection of this fourfold crisis that Armenia finds itselfgrappling with in 2024.
It seems that the Armenian PM understands - and openlyacknowledges - that his country cannot achieve peace or developmentwithout improving relations with Baku and Ankara. While inBrussels, Pashinyan confirmed Armenia's commitment to enhancingrelations with Azerbaijan. However, upon returning to Yerevan, heimmediately proposed extending the EU observer mission's mandate onthe border with Azerbaijan for another two years. Does thisindicate that Pashinyan doesn't anticipate signing a peace treatywith Azerbaijan for at least the next couple of years?
Former US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Matthew Bryza, believes thatdespite Pashinyan's mixed signals, significant progress has beenachieved in negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
"PM Pashinyan has been stating for several weeks that those fourvillages need to be returned to Azerbaijan for lasting peace. So,this latest statement from Pashinyan appears to be a continuationof his approach, which is clearly committed to achieving both apeace treaty with Azerbaijan and a border delimitation agreement. Ibelieve that the goal is to reach a peace treaty, and there hasbeen tremendous progress. If you consider what the Azerbaijani sidesays, that peace has never been so close. I think both sides arequietly making significant progress, but they haven't yet reached afinal agreement, and the issues are complex. However, I am quiteoptimistic that both leaders are committed to reaching a peacetreaty, as long as opponents of peace in Armenia do not prevail,"said Bryza.
The belief exists that Pashinyan is working to firmly embedEuropean observers in Armenia to foster a more favorable agenda inrelations with the EU. In Yerevan, this move is believed toaccelerate the country's shift towards the West.
Moreover, Armenia is banking on Western protection againstRussia. The Armenian side has repeatedly signaled a departure fromits traditional ally - Russia. Pashinyan, without wasting time,consistently critiques the CSTO, stating that the organizationhasn't provided any assistance to Armenia.
Protection from a potential Russian backlash to Armenia's"turnaround" is genuinely needed, especially economically. Anypro-Western or anti-Russian statements from Armenian authoritiesimmediately trigger issues with exporting Armenian products toRussia - a pivotal market for the country, particularly inagriculture, brandy, and other key goods.
Matthew Bryza believes that Armenia's economy will keepdeteriorating and won't see substantial growth if it remains solelyreliant on its connections with Russia. The US expert suggestsreintegrating the Armenian economy into the region, and ultimately,into Europe, as the way forward.
"Armenia's economic prospects lie in reintegrating with theregional and European economies through connections with Türkiyeand Azerbaijan. So, I believe cooperation corridors, whetherthrough Azerbaijan, Georgia, or Türkiye, offer the potential forArmenia's future economic growth," he said.
Pashinyan's concerns extend beyond just the economy to thepreservation of his own authority - and Russia poses a significantthreat in this regard as well. The opposition in Armenia largelycomprises pro-Russian factions. Additionally, Pashinyan's mainpolitical adversaries stem from the defeated "Karabakh clan," atime when Yerevan and Moscow were close allies. Pashinyan fearsthat with Kremlin backing, the opposition could regain power,either through elections or another revolution.
Recent remarks by the Armenian prime minister regarding formerleaders of the Karabakh separatists are tied to this. Pashinyanaccused them of plotting a coup, citing information and evidence oftheir plans to seize control in Armenia. Previously, Pashinyan alsoaccused Russia of attempting a state coup. It's clear that anychallenges to his leadership, according to the Armenian primeminister, are directly linked to Moscow.
"I think Pashinyan is sincere about the threat he faces from theKarabakh separatists. The Karabakh clan is known for its desire toregain power and its willingness to employ harsh tactics. You mayrecall the large street protests against his agreement for peacewith Azerbaijan, which haven't ceased. The people who oppose him,the so-called Karabakh clan, don't seek peace with Azerbaijan; theywant ongoing conflict," Ambassador Bryza said in this regard.
If we're to compare Nikol Pashinyan's current predicament to achess game, it resembles a zugzwang - a situation where any move hemakes only worsens his position on the board. Pashinyan findshimself unable to make a move that wouldn't further deteriorate hissituation.
Moreover, the Armenian prime minister lacks both the politicalexperience and strategic thinking ability to grasp that sooner orlater, he'll have to find a way out of this impasse. The way outhas been known for quite some time: it lies in signing a peacetreaty with Azerbaijan.
Indeed, a peace treaty with Baku could be the best solution: itwould pave the way for Armenia to improve relations with Türkiye, it would enable Armenia to join major regionalprojects – transit, energy, and many others. It's worth noting thatall these projects are in some way connected to Azerbaijan, meaningthat without resolving relations with Baku, Yerevan won't be ableto participate in these projects.
Conversely, if Armenia manages to reintegrate into the regionaleconomy, it would provide the country with much-needed economicgrowth and income not tied to Russia. It would also significantlyfacilitate Armenian products' access to European markets. Isn'tthis what the Armenian prime minister wants?
The path is there, and it's quite simple - everyone understandsthat. It remains for Nikol Pashinyan himself to finally realizeit.
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