(MENAFN- Asia Times) “Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” – Sun Tzu
In The Art of War, Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote that tactics and strategy should always complement each other and be considered two sides of the same coin. Wars and politics are always won by good coordination between tactics and strategy.
Without a strategy, facing up to any adversaries or striving for any objective would be considered foolishness. But without tactics, putting your strategy into action would be entirely dependent on luck.
A good strategy doesn't just draw on existing strength, it creates strength. Good tactics help in building and reinforcing that strength. To win in a war or in politics, one needs both the micro (tactics) and the macro (strategy) perspective.
The results of elections in the second week of December in two Indian states, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, and municipal polls in the union territory of Delhi showed excellent coordination among opposition parties in terms of both strategy and tactics.
This also provides an opportunity to reflect on the three main parties involved in those contests: the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian National Congress led by Rahul Gandhi, and the Aam Aadmi Party led by Arvind Kejriwal.
The majority of Indian media exit polls predicted the BJP's return to power in Gujarat and Himachal based on the“Modi wave” and a win for the AAP in Delhi. Quite to the political analysts' surprise, Congress became the winner in Himachal Pradesh and the BJP won with more than a clear majority in Gujarat, while the AAP won the Delhi municipal polls along with an impressive debut in Gujarat (13% vote share).
Despite a big victory in Gujarat, the Modi-led BJP lost in Himachal, Delhi, and 80% of by-polls in other states. It was Congress' first win after 18 straight losses. This victory was quite symbolic for the opposition, as Modi has always pitched for a“Congress-free India” in his electoral rallies.
The reason is obvious: Modi knows that if he can wipe out Congress from the country, the BJP will have the right to claim itself as the oldest party in India. It will help it rewrite India's history in its own words by completely wiping out Congress' contribution to India's freedom struggle and that of its leaders, including Mahatma Gandhi.
Recently a prominent BJP leader's wife, Amruta Fadnavis, called Modi the Father of New India. she said ,“There are two Fathers of the Nation – one from this era [Narendra Modi], one from that era [Mahatma Gandhi].” This clearly shows that the BJP wants to replace Gandhi's legacy with Modi's, so no new party will ever be able to challenge its legacy for decades.
More important, the majority of today's regional parties draw ideological inspiration from Gandhian values such as socialism, secularism, and the promotion of equality and diversity. Until now, the Indian National Congress has been the custodian of those values. So Congress is like a tree that holds the root of Gandhian values, and all the other regional or new parties are just extensions of the branches in ideological terms.
Without the root, no tree can grow and without the tree, no branch has much significance. The BJP wants to eliminate the tree (Congress) or replace the roots (Gandhi). That's why regional parties need Congress as much as Congress needs them for survival. This was quite visible in the recent elections.
An unofficial alliance for 2024 As the preparation for the state and Delhi elections started, the AAP was considered to be the biggest challenger to Modi's BJP, especially in Gujarat, the prime minister's home state, based on its performance in Punjab state polls a few months back.
The AAP had started the most aggressive campaign in Gujarat to date. AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal personally attended as many as 52 public events across the state between April 2 and November 8, including roadshows, public meetings, town hall programs, and press conferences.
Certainly defeating Modi's BJP in a state where it has held power for three decades would be a herculean task. But Kejriwal's aggressive campaign did grab Modi's attention in Gujarat, his bastion. In response, he held more than 30 rallies in his home state and two mega roadshows. This certainly helped the BJP to retain its hold in Gujarat, but at a considerable cost.
The BJP lost Himachal and the AAP won the Delhi municipal polls as well as getting enough votes to gain the status of a national party. The opposition strategy of diverting the BJP's attention through Kejriwal worked. Officially, there was no alliance on paper, but the AAP withdrawal from the aggressive campaign in Himachal helped Congress win. Congress' silent campaign in Gujarat and Delhi helped the AAP get enough votes for national party status.
Certainly, the biggest loser was the BJP, as it lost the elections in two key states and 80% of by-polls elsewhere in the country as the cost of a win in Gujarat. Modi made the mistake of falling into reputation fallacy (doing anything for his reputation without analyzing the total cost).
These election results have shown that the“Modi wave” is restricted only to Gujarat and there is no charismatic leader in the BJP apart from Modi who can win an election on his or her own. More important, Modi's strong pitch for a Congress-free India has certainly not found any takers outside Gujarat.
The reason behind the opposition's good performance was the tactics it adopted. Until now, the opposition was too concerned with the results rather than focusing on the process. The process is more important than the result; the result is just a by-product of the process.
So rather than focusing on winning an election, the opposition needs to focus on getting its electoral arithmetic right. That's the reason Congress won in Himachal Pradesh with less than a 1% vote margin to the BJP. Meanwhile in Delhi, the AAP defeated the BJP with less than a 3% vote margin. The BJP has employed a similar strategy since 2014 under Amit Shah, its chief election strategist.
Electoral arithmetic: the key to victory in 2024 The BJP has had an impressive show under Amit Shah as chief election strategist because he has mastered the art of electoral arithmetic. Modi called Shah the“man of the match” after his victory in the 2014 general election.
In 2014, the BJP became the first party to win a majority in Parliament with the lowest vote share (31%). No party had ever won more than half of the seats with a vote share that low. The previous lowest share for a single-party majority was in 1967 when Congress won 283 out of 520 seats with 40.8% of the total valid votes polled.
This statistical fact points to an important aspect for designing an electoral strategy. Amit Shah has employed the strategy of consolidating his vote banks and tactics of dividing the opposition vote banks. He picks the smaller parties such as AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen) and BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) who share a similar ideology and vote banks like Congress but never in alliance with Congress.
In 2014, the bahujan samaj party emerged with the third-highest vote share in the general election with more than 23 million votes, but the party hardly won any seats. But it kept fighting just to diminish the prospect of Congress and its allies' candidates.
Similarly, AIMIM has a good influence among Muslim voters. Congress has been the sole voice for minorities in India for the past few decades, especially Muslims. But AIMIM claims Muslim roots and fills in candidates to seek votes in the name of Muslims.
In 2019, AIMIM got 1.2 million votes but only two seats. In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election (the biggest state of India) AIMIM contested 100 seats and lost them all. Guess what, the BJP returned to power.
This clearly shows whose purpose the party is serving. There is an unofficial alliance between AIMIM, BSP, and other smaller parties with the BJP. In the state elections in December, the opposition followed a similar strategy, consolidating its own votes and dividing its rivals. Until now, the opposition was doing the politics of idealism, but this time, they established a pragmatic approach just like Amit Shah's.
Today's elections have become sophisticated and require proper planning and professionalism. The party that shows proper professional and sophisticated planning will likely win an election. A good theoretical assessment about electoral choices, needs and issues makes the victory easier for any party.
Congress and other opposition parties need to consolidate their vote banks and at the same time focus on dividing the BJP votes. For example, the AAP can be used to divide the BJP's urban votes, especially in states like Delhi and Punjab and urban metros. Dominant regional parties such as Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal United (JDU), and Samajwadi Party (SP) can take on the BJP in crucial states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh without much Congress support.
Only a such pragmatic approach can help Congress and its regional allies make a comeback or fight for survival in 2024. All the regional parties need to understand that if Congress is finished, then the BJP will not take much time to wipe out the regional parties completely.