Nvidia Shares Slide After Huang Quits: What Traders Need Now

(MENAFN- DailyFX (IG)) Nvidia slumps after Jensen Huang's exit – what it means for the AI trade

Nvidia has lost its founder, a third of its peak value and possibly more of its China business – but the AI demand story is still standing.

Source: Bloomberg Nvidia Technical analysis Earnings season Outlook Stock market Artificial intelligence

Written by

Chris Beauchamp

Chief Market Analyst

Publication date 2026-11-13T12:02:21+0000 What the sell-off reveals about Nvidia

For a company that spent the better part of three years as the market's most dependable source of good news, Nvidia has had a remarkably bad fortnight. The shares closed at $166.19, down 4.34% on the day, after co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang resigned on 12 November amid a scandal over his relationship with Alice Huang, a former executive at Singapore-based Megaspeed whom US authorities suspect of spying for Beijing – with CFO Colette Kress stepping in as interim CEO while the board looks for a permanent replacement. At one point the stock fell as far as $148.80, a fresh 52-week low, before buyers – or at least some sellers having second thoughts – dragged it back up towards $167.

The damage over a slightly longer window is considerable. The shares are down 10.96% week-to-date, 18.79% month-to-date and 10.89% year-to-date, and now sit roughly 32% below their 52-week high of $243.37, although the market capitalisation still stands at a not entirely shabby $4.01tn. Volume of 747.71 million shares suggests this was not a quiet repricing conducted between consenting institutions, and the stock is now trading well below both its 50-day simple moving average at $215.96 and its 200-day at $204.34, with 30-day volatility of 45.79% – the sort of reading more usually associated with small-cap biotech than with a $4tn chipmaker.

Nvidia has never operated without Huang.

The bull case: why the selling may have gone too far

Strip out the headlines and the numbers look, if anything, more appealing than they did a month ago. The shares trade on a trailing P/E of 21.01x but a forward P/E of just 11.60x, with forward EV/EBITDA at 9.37x against 19.57x on a trailing basis – multiples that would look undemanding for a utility, let alone a company whose revenue the consensus expects to more than double over the next two years. Analysts pencil in revenue of $411.12bn for the year to January 2027, rising to $694.58bn in FY2028 and $908.16bn in FY2029, with EPS climbing to $20.96 from $9.29 over the same stretch, on the assumption that AI infrastructure spending carries on regardless of who signs the letters at the top.

Analysts, as is customary, remain broadly optimistic. The mean price target of $281.41 from 57 analysts implies upside of around 69% from the latest close, and even the lowest target in the range, $174, sits above where the shares currently trade, while StarMine's SmartEstimate for FY2027 EPS of $9.35 points to a modest positive surprise of 0.66% versus consensus – hardly a ringing endorsement, but at least not a warning. The obvious caveat is that many of those targets were likely set before most of the market had heard of Megaspeed, and revisions in the coming days seem probable.

There is also the matter of political goodwill. President Trump reportedly urged Huang to fight for his job, describing him as a“tremendous talent”, which suggests the company still has friends in high places, even if its former chief executive is no longer in a position to call on them in any official capacity.

Why the consensus forecasts could decide the debate

Much of the bull case rests on the forecasts below, and the gap between the high and low estimates is wide enough to drive a data centre through.

The FY2029 numbers are the most revealing. The high revenue estimate of $1177.46bn would put Nvidia well past the trillion-dollar mark, while the low of $477.56bn is actually below the lowest FY2028 forecast of $528.43bn – a polite way of saying that at least some analysts think growth could stall or even reverse. Only 48 analysts venture a revenue forecast that far out, against 65 for the two nearer years, which may say something about how much confidence there is in the outer years now that the export picture is shifting.

The bear case: why this could be more than a blip

Leadership risk is not a phrase that usually needs much elaboration, but in Nvidia's case it is unusually acute. Huang co-founded the company and ran it throughout its history, and his departure leaves Kress – a well-regarded finance chief, but a finance chief nonetheless – minding the shop while the board hunts for a successor and Congress hunts for answers.

Then there's Washington. House Speaker Mike Johnson has said bipartisan consensus is building to limit chip exports to China, and at least four bills are advancing in Congress, including measures to track the location of AI chips, restrict remote access to data centres and give lawmakers more oversight of chip exports. Meanwhile, Reuters has identified more than $3bn (23bn yuan) of Chinese AI computing projects built around restricted Nvidia processors, spanning local government ventures, universities and regional computing centres – precisely the kind of finding that tends to speed legislation up rather than slow it down, and one that could further shrink Nvidia's addressable market in China.

The calendar adds its own pressure. Senate Banking Committee chairman Tim Scott has asked Huang and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to testify and said he would consider subpoenas, while House committee chairs have required Huang and Nvidia's general counsel to appear for closed-door interviews on 1-2 December. Event risk, in other words, is booked in through at least early December, and with the shares well below both moving averages and volatility near 46%, the market appears in no great hurry to give the stock the benefit of the doubt.

Historical parallels and what they tell us

Founder exits have a mixed record. When Steve Jobs stepped down as Apple's chief executive in August 2011 the shares wobbled only briefly, and Tim Cook went on to preside over a decade of gains that rather settled the succession debate. Uber's ousting of Travis Kalanick in 2017 came amid scandal and was followed by a lengthy period of governance repair before the company listed in 2019, though as a private company at the time its drawdown was never marked to market daily.

The difference with Nvidia is that the departure is entangled with national security and export policy, which means the operational question of who runs the company may matter less than the political question of who it is allowed to sell to.

What could signal a turning point

Several markers may help determine whether the selling has run its course:

• Clarity on a permanent chief executive, or at least a firm timetable from the board for the search
• The tone of the 1-2 December closed-door interviews, and whether the Senate Banking Committee moves to subpoenas
• Progress – or stalling – of the four export-control bills working their way through Congress
• Price target revisions as brokers digest the leadership change
• A recovery back above the 200-day SMA at $204.34, or a decisive break below the $148.80 low

If the hearings pass without fresh revelations and the export bills prove narrower than feared, a forward P/E of 11.6x could start to look like an opportunity rather than a warning; if not, $148.80 may not hold as the low for long. Founder gone, but the business still standing?

Nvidia shares technical analysis

Over the past five weeks the Nvidia share price slid by 39% from its $243.37 early October record high to this week's $148.80 low before recovering. Year-to-date the technology company's share price is currently around 11% under water.

What is interesting from a technical perspective is that the current November low was made close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-to-October 2026 advance at $146.49 and slightly below the November 2024 and January 2025 highs at $153.13-to-$152.89, all of which acted as a support zone. While it underpins, a recovery to the 6 November-to-9 November price gap at $179.92-to-$185.22 may well ensue.

Nvidia weekly candlestick chart Source: Nvidia

A more difficult test will be whether the Nvidia share price is able to overcome it technically more significant $190.01-to-$197.97 resistance area. It consists of the June-to-July lows and the October 2025 and December 2025-to-February 2026 highs and as such represents major resistance.

Nvidia daily candlestick chart Source: Nvidia

In case of the 12 November low at $148.80 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-to-October 2026 advance at $146.49 giving way on a daily chart closing basis, the June 2024 peak, February and May 2025 highs at $143.49-to-$140.76 may be reached.

How to trade Nvidia shares

Research Nvidia's latest news, consensus estimates and the progress of export-control legislation, and decide whether you think the shares will rise or fall.

Open an IG account, or log in if you already have one.

Choose between spread betting and CFD trading, depending on your goals and circumstances.

Search for 'Nvidia' and choose to go long if you think the price will rise, or short if you think it will fall.

Set your position size and consider stops to help manage risk, particularly given current volatility.

Open your position and monitor it closely, especially around the congressional interviews in early December. Important to know

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