Daily Gold Trading Report - Thursday, November 12, 2026

(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) newswire), a leader in mining investing news and home of theExploring Mining Podcast, issues market commentary from Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst that publishes the Daily Gold Trading Report.

Gold is sliding under $4,000 this morning after the hot US inflation report, trading near $3,986. The bias is Bearish, with $4,027 as the line in the sand.

Thursday's session is open and gold is trading near $3,986, down from Wednesday's close near $4,043 and holding just above the overnight low near $3,969. The TradingView 1-hour capture printed $3,986.330 and the 30-minute capture printed $3,986.015 at 07:11 to 07:12 PKT, both with a fully visible price axis.

The intraday map

The map for today is drawn from this morning's session and the week's structure. Resistance stacks at $4,067 (R4), Wednesday's daily high, then $4,043 (R3), Wednesday's New York close, $4,027 (R2), Wednesday's daily low, and $4,000 (R1), the psychological level, broken support turned resistance. The pivot sits at $3,986, this morning's live spot at the TradingView capture. Below, $3,969 (S1) is the overnight low, the level under test this morning, $3,950 (S2) is round-number demand, $3,900 (S3) is round-number support, and $3,870 (S4) is the 52-week low from October 29, the last line below. The bias is Bearish: the CPI print broke the market below $4,027 and gold has now spent two sessions under the 21-day moving average near $4,056. A sustained hourly close back above $4,027 flips the bias to Neutral toward $4,043; a sustained hourly close below $3,969 opens $3,950, then $3,900, then $3,870.

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30m

Why the macro tape turned

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, in a 10-2 decision, with two policymakers favouring an immediate 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has stayed above target for about six years and gave no guidance on the next meeting. The next decision is due December 8 to 9, and the October inflation report has hardened the hike case decisively: headline CPI rose 0.4% in October against 0.3% expected, after 0.6% in September, and core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected, unchanged from September, a third straight 0.3% print that puts the three-month annualised core rate near 3.75%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said ahead of the release that a 0.3% core reading would prompt him to consider a half-point hike at the December meeting, and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said the central bank needs to keep raising rates gradually to bring inflation back to its 2% target. CME FedWatch now prices a 25 basis point December hike at about 87 to 88.5%, with 11.5 to 13% odds on a 50 basis point move, and three further quarter-point increases priced in by mid-2027. The October jobs report also stays in the picture: payrolls up 165,000 against about 65,000 expected, unemployment down to 4.1% from 4.2%. Today's docket brings Initial Jobless Claims, housing data and Fed speeches, ahead of Friday's Producer Price Index.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 12 to 14 basis points to about 5.00%, touching 5.01% intraday and crossing the 5.00% threshold for the first time in this move, and it is holding near that level this morning. The 2-year yield jumped about 19 basis points to near 4.74%, its biggest single-day rise since April 2025. Holding non-yielding gold while the 10-year pays 5% carries a real opportunity cost, and that cost jumped on Tuesday and stayed high on Wednesday. The dollar index rose about 0.67% to 102.90, a yearly high and close to its year-to-date high of 102.94, and gold fell against that dollar strength for a second straight day. The US bond market was closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day, so the yield move is still digesting through a thin tape.

Crude oil rebounded on Wednesday as Middle East supply risks came back to the front. Brent rose about 1.4% to $92.73 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate gained about 0.7% to $86.63, recovering after Brent fell below $90 on Tuesday. The driver is the Strait of Hormuz: 37 attacks on vessels were recorded in the strait and surrounding waterways during October, the highest monthly figure since the conflict began, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a tanker attacked northeast of Lima off Oman on Tuesday, while Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy said two tankers caught fire after striking naval mines. The US-Iran conflict is now more than eight months old, and OPEC output rose toward prewar levels in October as Saudi Arabia lifted production to 10.56 million barrels a day, but the shipping risk keeps a premium in the price. US inventory data leaned bearish, with API figures showing crude stocks up 9 million barrels last week against an expected draw of about 0.6 million, and the official EIA data is due today. Higher oil feeds inflation expectations and the case for another Fed hike, which pressures gold, while a fresh Hormuz incident can push oil and gold up together on the haven bid. The Democrats' midterm sweep also reshaped the macro picture, with a divided government reducing expectations of fresh fiscal expansion.

What to watch today

Today brings Initial Jobless Claims, housing data and Fed speeches, ahead of Friday's Producer Price Index, and the official EIA inventory data lands today after the API showed a 9 million barrel build. Traders also watch the Strait of Hormuz headlines. It is a day for watching whether the $3,969 low holds or gives way.

Wednesday's follow-through: gold pushed to $4,067 in the morning, failed, and slid through $4,000 in the overnight session to about $3,969, trading near $3,986 this morning The break that matters: gold closed Tuesday well below $4,107, the line in the sand, then lost $4,000 on Wednesday, so the structure that held Monday's rally together is gone The Fed picture: a December hike is now fully priced on CME FedWatch, with about 87 to 88.5% odds on a 25 basis point move and 11.5 to 13% on a 50 basis point move, after Fed Governor Waller said a 0.3% core reading would make him consider a half-point hike Yields crossed the line: the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 12 to 14 basis points to about 5.00%, touching 5.01% intraday, and the dollar index rose about 0.67% to 102.90, a yearly high Oil rebounded: Brent rose about 1.4% to $92.73 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate gained about 0.7% to $86.63, as shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued, with 37 attacks recorded in October, the highest monthly figure since the conflict began Bullish trigger: a soft jobless claims print, a dovish Fed speaker, or a fresh Hormuz headline revives the haven bid, with a sustained hourly close above $4,027 (R2) as the trigger and $4,043 (R3), then $4,067 (R4), as targets Bearish trigger: firm claims data or hawkish Fed commentary keeps the pressure on, with a sustained hourly close below $3,969 (S1) as the trigger and $3,950 (S2), then $3,900 (S3), then $3,870 (S4), as targets

About the author: I'm Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst. I publish the Daily Gold Trading Report, a professional daily XAU/USD report with exact intraday levels, annotated charts, and full macro coverage, at substack.

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