Prabowo Gains Upper Hand As Gibran's Exit Weakens Widodo's Grip

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The court's chief justice, Anwar Usman, is Jokowi's brother-in-law and Gibran's uncle by marriage. An ethics panel later found that Usman should have recused himself and removed him as chief justice, but it had no power to overturn the ruling, and Gibran stayed on the ticket.

The pressure on Jokowi's network extends beyond Gibran. Three police generals have been detained in an investigation into allegations that senior officers illegally wiretapped Prabowo and others.

One is Listyo Sigit Prabowo, the former national police chief, who recently moved to the post of presidential chief of staff before being implicated. Some suspects have been linked to Jokowi's circle, but that doesn't prove the former president directed or knew about any surveillance.

There has also been movement in the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which is closely associated with Jokowi's family. Raja Juli Antoni, Giring Ganesha and Isyana Bagoes Oka have resigned from party positions or membership, saying they want to concentrate on government responsibilities.

That doesn't mean the party has abandoned Jokowi, but it suggests how loyalties can shift toward a sitting president when government access becomes more valuable than party roles.

Together, these developments point to an erosion of Jokowi's bargaining power, though not to irrelevance. He retains name recognition, personal networks and a political following. But influence and leverage are different things. Influence draws attention or commands loyalty; leverage turns those assets into concessions from another actor. Jokowi may still have the first while losing some of the second.

In 2024, Prabowo had reason to value Jokowi's popularity, networks and endorsement. Two years into his term, he has his own electoral mandate, control of the executive and a broad parliamentary coalition. The more alternatives he has, the less he needs his predecessor. None of this shows that Prabowo engineered the Solo network's decline, but the relationship is now less symmetrical.

Gibran's vice presidency was more than a family achievement; it was Jokowi's channel into government. With that channel closed, Jokowi will have to lean more heavily on informal networks, alliances and public standing. Those may still matter in the 2029 elections, but they offer less direct influence than a son in the vice president's palace.

For Prabowo, Gibran's departure could provide political insulation. The two men won the 2024 election on one ticket, but the resignation lets Prabowo separate his administration's future from the controversy surrounding his deputy while keeping the presidency intact.

Under Article 8 of the Constitution, the People's Consultative Assembly will fill the vacancy from two candidates nominated by the president, giving Prabowo a central role in shaping the next configuration of power.