Daily Gold Trading Report - Wednesday, November 11, 2026

(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) newswire), a leader in mining investing news and home of theExploring Mining Podcast, issues market commentary from Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst that publishes the Daily Gold Trading Report.

Gold is steadying at $4,044 this morning after Tuesday's 2.5% slide on a hot US inflation report, sitting right on its intraday low. The bias is Bearish, with $4,107 as the line in the sand.

Wednesday's session is open and gold is trading near $4,044, down from Monday's close at $4,141 and holding just above the $4,043 low printed in Tuesday's selloff. The TradingView 1-hour capture printed $4,044.430 and the 30-minute capture printed $4,043.300 at 07:06 to 07:07 PKT, both with a fully visible price axis.

The intraday map

The map for today is drawn from this morning's session and the week's structure. Resistance stacks at $4,185 (R4), the liquidity target from the Nov 9 and Nov 10 editions, then $4,147 (R3), Tuesday's daily high, $4,140 (R2), Monday's close, and $4,107 (R1), Friday's session high and yesterday's line in the sand. The pivot sits at $4,044, this morning's live spot at the TradingView capture. Below, $4,043 (S1) is Tuesday's intraday low on the OANDA chart, the level under test this morning, $4,000 (S2) is the psychological level, $3,972 (S3) is the early-November range ceiling, and $3,950 (S4) is the next round-number support. The bias is Bearish: the CPI print broke the market below $4,107 and gold closed the day under it. A sustained hourly close back above $4,107 flips the bias to Neutral toward $4,140; a sustained hourly close below $4,043 opens $4,000, then $3,972, then $3,950.

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30m

Why the macro tape turned

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, in a 10-2 decision, with two policymakers favouring an immediate 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has stayed above target for about six years and gave no guidance on the next meeting. The next decision is due December 8 to 9, and the October inflation report has hardened the hike case decisively: headline CPI rose 0.4% in October against 0.3% expected, after 0.6% in September, and core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected, unchanged from September, signalling that the disinflation process is stalling. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said ahead of the release that a 0.3% core reading would prompt him to consider a half-point hike at the December meeting, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the central bank needs at least two more quarter-point increases and that more rapid hikes may be needed this winter. CME FedWatch now prices a 25 basis point December hike as fully priced, with 10 to 15% odds on a 50 basis point move, up from zero before the data and from about 84% for a 25 basis point hike on Monday. The October jobs report also stays in the picture: payrolls up 165,000 against about 65,000 expected, unemployment down to 4.1% from 4.2%. Today is Veterans Day, a US federal holiday, so the US data calendar is quiet and the docket picks up on Thursday with jobless claims, housing data and Fed speakers.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 12 to 13 basis points to about 4.99%, touching 5.01% intraday, crossing the 5.00% threshold for the first time in this move. The 2-year yield rose about 19 to 21 basis points to near 4.74% to 4.76%. Holding non-yielding gold while the 10-year pays 5% carries a real opportunity cost, and that cost jumped yesterday. The dollar index rose about 0.6% to 102.25 to 102.36, the euro fell to about $1.1156 to $1.1162, and the dollar gained against the yen to about 158.7 to 158.8. Gold fell about 2.5% against that dollar strength, the mirror image of Monday's resilience, when it rallied through a firm dollar.

Crude oil slid on Tuesday after President Trump said he was highly unlikely to order more attacks on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict continued. Brent fell below $92 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate to about $85.54 to $86, after Brent settled at $92.57 on Monday, down from $117.64 on October 30. Crude exports from the Persian Gulf are estimated to have returned to around 80 to 85% of pre-war levels, including pipeline volumes, while refined product shipments have recovered to roughly 35 to 40%. Reports that Iran may be softening its position on control of the Strait of Hormuz have also reduced concerns over a prolonged disruption to one of the world's most important oil transit routes, though the US naval blockade stays in place for now. Russian and Ukrainian officials are set to meet on Tuesday for two days of US-mediated discussions, their first meeting of this kind since February. Softer oil eases inflation expectations and the case for another Fed hike, which supports gold, while a fresh Hormuz incident can push oil and gold up together on the haven bid. The Democrats' midterm sweep also reshaped the macro picture, with a divided government reducing expectations of fresh fiscal expansion.

What to watch today

Today is Veterans Day, a US federal holiday, so the US data calendar is quiet, with the bond market closed and the docket picking up on Thursday with jobless claims, housing data and Fed speakers. It is a day for watching whether the low holds or gives way.

Tuesday's CPI shock: the October consumer price index came in hot, headline up 0.4% against 0.3% expected and core up 0.3% against 0.2% expected, and gold fell about 2.5% on the day to the $4,030s The break that matters: gold closed Tuesday well below $4,107, the line in the sand, and under $4,071 too, so the structure that held Monday's rally together is gone The Fed picture: a December hike is now fully priced on CME FedWatch, with 10 to 15% odds on a 50 basis point move, up from zero before the data, after Fed Governor Waller said a 0.3% core reading would make him consider a half-point hike Yields crossed the line: the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 12 to 13 basis points to about 4.99%, touching 5.01% intraday, and the dollar index rose about 0.6% to 102.25 to 102.36 Oil eased: Brent fell below $92 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate to about $85.54 to $86, after President Trump said further strikes on Iran are highly unlikely while talks continue, though the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz stays in place Bullish trigger: a dovish Fed speaker or a fresh Hormuz headline revives the haven bid, with a sustained hourly close above $4,107 (R1) as the trigger and $4,140 (R2), then $4,147 (R3), then $4,185 (R4), as targets Bearish trigger: hawkish Fed commentary or a firm dollar keeps the pressure on, with a sustained hourly close below $4,043 (S1) as the trigger and $4,000 (S2), then $3,972 (S3), then $3,950 (S4), as targets

About the author: I'm Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst. I publish the Daily Gold Trading Report, a professional daily XAU/USD report with exact intraday levels, annotated charts, and full macro coverage, at substack.

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