Gold Outlook

(MENAFN- MENAFNEditorial) I think gold is facing a tougher road in the near term. The market has largely priced in a 25bp Fed hike in December, but hotter-than-expected US inflation has brought the possibility of a 50bp move back into play. A stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields are making it harder for gold to sustain a recovery.
The bigger question for gold bulls is what other bad ne’s hasn’t been priced in yet.
The tricky part is that gold could come under pressure whether risk assets rise or fall. If concerns over AI financing and profitability, or a disappointing Anthropic IPO, trigger another equity sell-off, investors may be forced to sell gold to raise cash and cover losses elsewhere. Ironically, if equities perform too well, gold could also lose some of its appeal as investors favour riskier assets.
A further escalation in geopolitical tensions could also pose a risk. If oil prices surge again, renewed inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed tightening could support USD while weigh on non-yielding gold.
I’d watch $4,000 closely. A decisive break could open the door to $3,960, while gold would need to rec–aim $4,100–$4,110 to rebuild bullish momentum.
I’m still constructive on gold over the medium term, supported by central bank demand and persistent fiscal uncertainty. But for now, the bigger risk is that gold struggles to find a clear catalyst for a sustained recovery, even when uncertainty rises.

 

MENAFN11112026000070015918ID1111945757