Brent At $77/Bbl: 3 Calls For Energy Markets

(MENAFN- ING) How to read our three calls for 2027 Source: ING

"> ING's base call: Brent to average $77/bbl next year

Oil markets have been on a roller coaster this year given events in the Middle East. However, we are going into year-end with oil flows from the region near pre-war levels despite the lack of a deal between the US and Iran. While oil flows are normalising, the way oil is coming out of the region is anything but normal, which is reflected in the surge in tanker shipping rates, given the very inefficient oil flows.

Our base case assumes occasional flare-ups between the US and Iran, meaning a full normalisation of Persian Gulf supplies remains some way off and the oil market is likely to retain a degree of risk premium. However, provided there are no significant or prolonged disruptions, we expect the market surplus to build over the course of 2027, leaving Brent to average around $77/bbl. A deal between the US and Iran would add further downside risk to this view.

Our risky call: OPEC will see more member exits

We believe harmony within OPEC could be tested, with the possibility of further members leaving the group. This follows the UAE's departure earlier this year. Post-Persian Gulf disruptions, any breakdown or weakening of the group risks adding more supply to the market, which would potentially leave further downside to our base case price forecasts for Brent in 2027.

The most likely candidate to leave OPEC is Venezuela, with the US's growing influence over the Venezuelan oil industry following the capture and arrest of President Maduro at the start of 2026. But we believe that some Persian Gulf producers may also question their membership, particularly if disagreements emerge over the capacity numbers used by the group to set production targets. Iraq has already made noise around production targets, and following the exit of the UAE, some members may be looking at them enviously, with the UAE pumping record volumes of crude since leaving the bloc.

Our bold call: TTF to trade sub-€40/MWh before the end of next year

European gas prices have strengthened significantly in 2026. But what goes up must come down, and we believe prices could fall sharply next year. There are clearly plenty of assumptions here, most importantly a normalisation of Persian Gulf LNG flows in early 2027. If that happens, we believe TTF could trade below €40/MWh by end-2027.

On the demand side, higher prices are already driving some industrial demand destruction, while we are deep in the gas-to-coal switching range. Furthermore, El Niño could bring milder weather to parts of Europe and East Asia. While far from guaranteed, this could reduce heating demand in winter. So, we potentially come out of the 2026/27 winter with the EU gas balance not as tight as many fear, putting downward pressure on prices.

We also have significant US LNG export capacity coming onto the market, which should help with storage ahead of the 2027/28 winter. If the situation in the Persian Gulf normalises, we also have new capacity starting up in Qatar.

MENAFN10112026000222011065ID1111940046