UAE Forecast To Lead Solar Output Per Person Arabian Post

(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) clearfix"> The UAE is expected to generate more solar electricity per person than any other country by 2031, as renewable power development accelerates across the Middle East, the International Energy Agency has forecast.

The Paris-based agency projects UAE solar generation exceeding 4,000 kilowatt-hours per capita in 2031, placing it ahead of Australia and Oman. Its Renewables 2026 report, published on Friday, also anticipates a sharp expansion of renewable generating capacity across the wider region, driven predominantly by large solar projects.

The distinction is based on electricity generated per resident, rather than total national output. China is expected to remain the largest market for renewable capacity expansion, while the UAE's comparatively small population and growing solar fleet underpin its projected position in the per-capita ranking.

Oman is forecast to rank third globally, with Bulgaria fourth and Qatar fifth. Greece, Austria, Spain, China and Chile complete the leading ten countries. Each is expected to produce at least 2,000 kilowatt-hours of solar electricity per person annually by 2031, compared with a global average of approximately 800 kilowatt-hours.

The agency expects renewable capacity additions across the Middle East and North Africa to accelerate substantially through 2031. Saudi Arabia is projected to increase its pace of renewable expansion fivefold compared with the preceding six years, followed by the UAE, as governments pursue energy diversification and greater electricity supply security.

Saudi Arabia is expected to account for a substantial proportion of the region's new installations. Solar photovoltaic systems are forecast to dominate capacity additions, reflecting falling generation costs, government procurement programmes and the availability of land suitable for large power plants.

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The IEA described the acceleration in Saudi Arabia and the UAE as a structural change in the regional electricity market. Its projections nevertheless remain sensitive to project delivery schedules, grid connections, investment conditions and disruptions affecting energy infrastructure and supply chains.

Across the world, renewable electricity capacity is forecast to increase by almost 85 per cent between 2025 and 2031. Solar photovoltaic technology accounts for more than three quarters of that expansion, with wind power providing another significant contribution.

The agency expects almost 4,800 gigawatts of renewable capacity to be added worldwide during 2026–2031, an increase of 57 per cent over additions during the previous six-year period. China remains the biggest contributor, although its share of global growth is projected to decline to 53 per cent, from more than 60 per cent in 2025.

India is forecast to become the second-largest growth market. The IEA said stronger energy security concerns, supportive policies and improving competitiveness of solar and wind projects had lifted its outlook for emerging and developing economies outside China by almost 20 per cent compared with last year's assessment.

The UAE has set a target for clean sources, including nuclear energy as well as renewables, to provide 35 per cent of its electricity by around 2030–2031. Energy and Infrastructure Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei outlined the higher ambition at a regional energy gathering in September, emphasising additional projects and greater private-sector participation.

Among the UAE's operating installations is the two-gigawatt Al Dhafra solar photovoltaic plant in Abu Dhabi, inaugurated in 2023. The project covers more than 20 square kilometres and uses nearly four million panels, illustrating the scale of utility-sized installations contributing to the country's electricity supply.

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The outlook is not uniform across countries. The agency said some renewable hydrogen developments have slowed, while delays linked to the Strait of Hormuz have affected project timetables. Stronger corporate demand, expanded projects and higher national targets have offset those pressures.

The IEA also expects renewable electricity generation to gain ground across the Middle East and North Africa. Its forecast places the renewable share of regional electricity production at about 15 per cent in 2031, against 6 per cent in 2025, with solar accounting for most of the increase.

Worldwide, renewables are projected to supply roughly 43 per cent of electricity in 2031, up from 33 per cent in 2025. Solar generation alone is expected to overtake hydropower by the end of the forecast period, becoming the largest renewable source of electricity globally.

The agency cautioned that its central projection still falls short of the international objective of tripling renewable capacity by 2030. Faster permitting, grid investment, storage deployment and competitive auctions would be needed to accelerate installations sufficiently to reach that milestone in 2031.

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