China's Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trn For Second Year In A Row, Exports Jump 35.2% In October: What's Leading The Surge?

(MENAFN- Live Mint) As US President Donald Trump is likely to meet his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, for the third time this year at next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, Beijing's trade surplus has soared past $1 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026.

The data comes amid a global race to build artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, which has driven demand for high-tech products and boosted exports, helping offset weak domestic demand. The trend could further strain trade relations with major partners, Reuters reported.

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In October, exports jumped 35.2% compared with the same month last year in US dollar terms, according to customs data released on Tuesday (local time). The increase was slightly below September's 36.3% growth but exceeded economists' expectations of a 33.5% rise. This helped push Beijing's cumulative trade surplus to $1.04 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, crossing the $1 trillion mark for a second consecutive year and reaching the milestone a month earlier than in 2025.

China 's exports stood at $412.3 billion in October, while imports totalled $307.1 billion. The monthly trade surplus, however, narrowed to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September as imports grew at a faster pace.

China's imports recorded a 41.6% year-on-year increase in October, surpassing the 32% growth projected by economists surveyed by Reuters. The rise also marked an acceleration from the 31% increase reported in September.

The data highlights Beijing's increasing dependence on exports to sustain economic growth amid weak consumer spending and a prolonged downturn in the property sector. Although strong global investment in AI is likely to support demand for Chinese technology goods through 2027, analysts caution that greater reliance on foreign markets could expose the country to rising trade barriers while concealing underlying domestic economic challenges.

Customs data also showed that rare earth exports edged higher from September, while crude oil imports jumped to their highest level since March as buyers adjusted to supply disruptions in the Middle East.

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According to the report, China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed marginally from $34.01 billion in September to $32.71 billion in October, though the broader imbalance between the world's two largest economies continues to be a source of friction.

Earlier on Monday, Beijing and Washington formally extended their trade truce until January 10, 2027, giving both sides additional time to work towards a broader trade understanding.

China's exports to create friction with the European Union?

The growing trade surplus may fuel further tensions with the European Union, where leaders have sought additional trade restrictions on China. This comes after Beijing and the bloc reached an agreement to curb Chinese exports of hybrid vehicles to the European market over the next few years.

However, as the new measures are not yet in force, manufacturers are likely to accelerate shipments ahead of their implementation, providing a short-term boost to exports.

(with inputs from Reuters)

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