Iran Conflict Disruptions Set to Reduce Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
(MENAFN) Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption are forecast to fall by 0.4% in 2026, partly reflecting disruptions to energy markets caused by the Iran conflict, alongside the continued growth of clean energy, according to a report by the Global Carbon Project.
The annual assessment estimates that emissions linked to oil use will decline by 1.9% this year. Natural gas-related emissions are projected to decrease by 0.3%, while coal emissions are expected to record a 0.6% increase.
Major economies are also forecast to experience lower fossil fuel emissions. The European Union is expected to register a 1.5% decline, followed by the United States with a 1.3% reduction and China with a 0.9% drop.
India is projected to move in the opposite direction, with its emissions expected to rise by 4.4%.
The report also highlights the growing contribution of renewable energy and electric mobility, estimating that solar and wind power, together with electric vehicles, will account for approximately two-thirds of the additional global energy demand.
However, researchers warned against interpreting the projected reduction as evidence of a sustained shift away from fossil fuels.
“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the study.
The annual assessment estimates that emissions linked to oil use will decline by 1.9% this year. Natural gas-related emissions are projected to decrease by 0.3%, while coal emissions are expected to record a 0.6% increase.
Major economies are also forecast to experience lower fossil fuel emissions. The European Union is expected to register a 1.5% decline, followed by the United States with a 1.3% reduction and China with a 0.9% drop.
India is projected to move in the opposite direction, with its emissions expected to rise by 4.4%.
The report also highlights the growing contribution of renewable energy and electric mobility, estimating that solar and wind power, together with electric vehicles, will account for approximately two-thirds of the additional global energy demand.
However, researchers warned against interpreting the projected reduction as evidence of a sustained shift away from fossil fuels.
“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the study.
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