U.S. Jobless Fears Jump to Highest Since April 2020; Inflation Steady
(MENAFN) American households grew more worried about rising unemployment in October even as their inflation expectations stayed fixed at elevated levels, according to data released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The bank’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which polls roughly 1,300 household heads, put the median one-year inflation forecast at 3.9%, unchanged from the prior reading. Three-year and five-year projections also held, at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively. Expectations for home price growth were flat at 3.0%.
Costs: relief at the pump, pressure elsewhere
Respondents expect gasoline prices to climb 4.2% over the next 12 months, down 0.6 percentage points. Expected food price growth was unchanged at 5.5%.
Other major household expenses drew steeper forecasts. Anticipated medical care cost growth ticked up 0.1 percentage points to 9.3%, and expected college tuition growth rose by the same margin to 7.6%. Rent expectations posted the largest jump, climbing 0.9 percentage points to 7.7%.
Labor market: anxiety up, confidence in re-employment also up
Sentiment on jobs was split. The average perceived probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher a year from now rose 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%, the highest reading since April 2020.
The perceived chance of losing one’s job within the next year increased 0.4 percentage points to 13.9%. At the same time, respondents’ estimated probability of finding another job after a layoff also rose 0.4 percentage points, to 46.5%, the strongest level since November 2025.
Income and spending
Expected household income growth slipped 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%, while projected spending growth fell 0.2 percentage points to 5.3%.
The survey arrives a day before the release of October inflation figures. In September, US consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month and 3.7% from a year earlier.
The bank’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which polls roughly 1,300 household heads, put the median one-year inflation forecast at 3.9%, unchanged from the prior reading. Three-year and five-year projections also held, at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively. Expectations for home price growth were flat at 3.0%.
Costs: relief at the pump, pressure elsewhere
Respondents expect gasoline prices to climb 4.2% over the next 12 months, down 0.6 percentage points. Expected food price growth was unchanged at 5.5%.
Other major household expenses drew steeper forecasts. Anticipated medical care cost growth ticked up 0.1 percentage points to 9.3%, and expected college tuition growth rose by the same margin to 7.6%. Rent expectations posted the largest jump, climbing 0.9 percentage points to 7.7%.
Labor market: anxiety up, confidence in re-employment also up
Sentiment on jobs was split. The average perceived probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher a year from now rose 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%, the highest reading since April 2020.
The perceived chance of losing one’s job within the next year increased 0.4 percentage points to 13.9%. At the same time, respondents’ estimated probability of finding another job after a layoff also rose 0.4 percentage points, to 46.5%, the strongest level since November 2025.
Income and spending
Expected household income growth slipped 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%, while projected spending growth fell 0.2 percentage points to 5.3%.
The survey arrives a day before the release of October inflation figures. In September, US consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month and 3.7% from a year earlier.
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