Daily Gold Trading Report - Monday, November 9, 2026

(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) newswire), a leader in mining investing news and home of theExploring Mining Podcast, issues market commentary from Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst that publishes the Daily Gold Trading Report.

Gold climbed to $4,128 this morning, up 1.3% on the day, after Friday's hot jobs report failed to knock it down, and Monday's Asian session has it pressing the session high ahead of Tuesday's inflation report. The bias is Bullish, with $4,107 as the line in the sand.

Monday's session is open and gold is trading near $4,128, up from Friday's close near $4,071 and holding at today's session high of $4,128.31. The TradingView 1-hour capture printed $4,127.560 and the 30-minute capture printed $4,126.000 at 07:01 PKT, both with a fully visible price axis.

The intraday map

The map for today is drawn from this morning's session and the week's structure. Resistance stacks at $4,147 (R3), Thursday's post-midterm high and the highest print in two weeks, then $4,138 (R2), the highest print on the 30-minute chart, and $4,128 (R1), today's session high so far. The pivot sits at $4,127, this morning's live spot at the TradingView capture. Below, $4,107 (S1) is Friday's session high, $4,071 (S2) is Friday's close, and $4,054 (S3) is today's session low. The bias is Bullish: price is above $4,100 after breaking out this morning, and it is buying through a hot jobs report and a firm dollar. A sustained hourly close below $4,107 flips the bias to Neutral toward $4,071; a sustained hourly close above $4,128 reopens $4,138 and then $4,147.

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30m

On the 30-minute chart, S1, S2 and S3 are drawn; the resistance levels sit above its visible range.

Why the macro tape turned

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, in a 10-2 decision, with two policymakers favouring an immediate 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has stayed above target for about six years and gave no guidance on the next meeting. The next decision is due December 8 to 9, and the jobs report has hardened the hike case: futures now price around 76% to 81% for a 25 basis point increase in December, up from about 67% before the report, with CME FedWatch near 79%. The October employment report showed payrolls up 165,000, far above the roughly 65,000 expected, unemployment down to 4.1% from 4.2%, and September revised up by 60,000. The weak spots in the report, a jump of 339,000 in involuntary part-time work and annual wage growth of 3.1% trailing inflation of 3.7%, give the doves something to hold onto, but the headline is hawkish and the market has priced it that way. The data calendar peaks on Tuesday: the October consumer price index lands at 8:30 AM Eastern, with the market watching for a monthly rise near 0.3% after 0.6% last time.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.87%, up after the jobs report and close to the 5.00% threshold but still below it. The 2-year yield is near 4.53%. Holding non-yielding gold while the 10-year pays close to 5% still carries a real opportunity cost, and that cost rose on Friday, which is one reason the rally needs Tuesday's inflation data to extend. The dollar index sits near 102.2, up 0.7% on Friday for its biggest daily gain in seven weeks, after the jobs report repriced the December hike. Gold rising 1.3% on Monday against that dollar strength is the notable part of this morning: the metal is not waiting for the dollar to roll over.

Crude oil eased over the weekend after President Trump said on Sunday he was highly unlikely to order more attacks on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict continued. Brent settled near $99 a barrel, down about 15% on the week, and West Texas Intermediate near $91, after Friday's missile and drone attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz had pushed benchmarks back up about 2%. Iran's President Pezeshkian has signalled openness to nuclear talks mediated by Qatar, and the market is pricing a diplomatic path, though the Strait still carries about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, so every tanker headline reprices both oil and safe-haven flows within hours. Softer oil eases inflation expectations and the case for another Fed hike, which supports gold, while a fresh Hormuz incident can push oil and gold up together on the haven bid. Gold demand in India picked up at the start of the Dhanteras festival on Friday, with a single-day record of electronic gold receipt trades, as prices slid to a seven-month low earlier in the week.

What to watch today

Today is a quiet day on the United States calendar, with the market's eyes already on Tuesday's October consumer price index at 8:30 AM Eastern, expected near 0.3% for the month after 0.6% last time. It is the single biggest release of the week and the next real test of the December rate bet.

Friday's verdict: the October jobs report came in hot, payrolls up 165,000 against about 65,000 expected, and the dollar jumped 0.7% while the 10-year yield climbed toward 4.87%, pushing gold down to about $4,032 before buyers stepped in and carried it back to a close near $4,071 Monday's rally: gold opened near $4,062, dipped to $4,054, then climbed through $4,100 to $4,128, up 1.3% on the day, and it is sitting on the session high rather than fading from it The Fed picture: December hike odds are now around 76% to 81%, up from about 67% before the jobs report, with CME FedWatch near 79%, and the next decision is due December 8 to 9 Oil eased: Brent settled near $99 a barrel, down about 15% on the week, after President Trump said further strikes on Iran are highly unlikely while talks continue, though Friday's tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz pushed benchmarks back up about 2% Bullish trigger: a soft inflation print on Tuesday that trims December hike odds, with a sustained hourly close above $4,128 (R1) as the trigger and $4,138 (R2), then $4,147 (R3), as targets Bearish trigger: a hot inflation print on Tuesday that hardens the December hike case and lifts the dollar, with a sustained hourly close below $4,107 (S1) as the trigger and $4,071 (S2), then $4,054 (S3), as targets

About the author: I'm Aamir Iqbal, a market analyst. I publish the Daily Gold Trading Report, a professional daily XAU/USD report with exact intraday levels, annotated charts, and full macro coverage, at substack.

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