Even After Midterms, Trump's Still A Problem For Seoul And Tokyo

The Japan-China Economic Association tried to reschedule in November, but that also fell through, so it is now aiming for March. Instead, about 20 Japanese business leaders will reportedly attend the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19.

As for the situation on the Korean Peninsula, it has been more than two decades since Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi met with Kim Jong-il (Kim Jong-un's father) in 2002. According to Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

In fact, the Koizumi–Kim Jong-il summit did not resolve any of the outstanding issues between Japan and North Korea, which only grew more serious. Trump met with Kim Jong Un three times during his first term, but failed to achieve a breakthrough, although Kim and Ambassador Extraordinaire Dennis Rodman did share a love of basketball.

President Biden reverted to containment, which led to the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between North Korea and the Russian Federation and the economic revival of North Korea (GDP growth above 3% per annum since 2022, according to the Bank of Korea). South Korea now faces North Korean troops battle-hardened in Ukraine, and a larger and more sophisticated North Korean weapons industry.

With this in mind, many South Koreans were alarmed when Lieutenant General Joe Hilbert, commander of the US Eighth Army in South Korea, told the South China Morning Post that it would be “irresponsible to focus myopically” on threats on the Korean peninsula or to“suggest that we cannot do other things simply because we are in Korea.”

The US 2026 National Defense Strategy calls for South Korea to take primary responsibility for deterring North Korea, while US forces focus on defending the first island chain, which runs from Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines. US Forces Korea Commander General Xavier Brunson went further a year ago, when he showed off his“East-Up Map” of the Western Pacific, stating that:

The US is also pushing back against South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's attempt to have wartime operational control (OPCON ) of US forces in South Korea transferred to South Korean military commanders.

Lee wants it done before the end of his term in 2030, but Brunson said in October that the changing security environment (e.g., North Korea launching more ballistic missiles) has created“new standards” that require the transfer to be“conditions-based” rather than determined by politics. As reported by Air & Space Forces Magazine, the South Korean Minister of Defense and National Security Advisor see this as“moving the goalposts.”

Speaking at the Indo-Pacific Summit hosted by the Gold Institute for International Strategy in Washington, DC, Brunson said:

The intent seems to be to move the goalposts as far out as possible, perhaps to never. There is precedent: The plan to relocate the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in Okinawa was first announced in 1996, to be done“within five to seven years.” Now it is expected to take place in the mid-2030s. A city has grown up around the Futenma Air Station since 1945 (conditions have changed), increasing the risk of accidents and complaints about noise.

It is for good reason that South Koreans see a growing risk of being dragged into a US war with China over Taiwan, or another regional conflict. Speaking at Seoul National University's Institute for Future Strategy on October 21, Professor Emeritus Moon Chung-in of Yonsei said,“Personally, I see the alliance as a curse rather than a blessing for us. As long as we remain in an alliance, we cannot escape the security dilemma.”

President Lee Jae-myung, who is trying to improve diplomatic and trade relations with both Beijing and Moscow, finds himself between a rock and a hard place. He also favors the revival of dialogue between Trump and Kim Jong Un. In September, Lee told the Associated Press that“The two leaders should build trust and work together to identify a common ground, face-to-face.”

At the same time, South Korea is capitalizing on the US effort to rebuild its naval shipbuilding capacity. On November 1, South Korea's Hanwha Defense USA signed a US $269 million contract to build a Medium Landing Ship for the US Navy and Marine Corps at the Hanwha Philly Shipyard in Philadelphia, which it acquired in December 2024. On October 23, HD Hyundai (formerly Hyundai Heavy Industries) said it had signed an agreement with ‌US engineering and construction company Kiewit to build a new shipyard in the US.

The Japanese used to talk about an all-directions foreign policy. South Korea actually has one.

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