Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

US Midterms Set the Stage for What Comes Next


Date:

(MENAFN- Golin Mena) Global markets have seen a sharp turnaround following the US midterm elections, with an initial sell-off giving way to a relief rally as investors reassess the results and their implications for the economy, technology and global growth.

According to Josh Gilbert, Lead Analyst APAC and Middle East at etoro, falling oil prices have played a major role in improving market sentiment, helping ease concerns around inflation and interest rates.

"Markets have whipsawed in the last 24 hours, and what started as a knee-jerk sell-off has turned into a relief rally. Markets went from fearing the result to finding the upside in it," said Gilbert.

"Oil has done much of the heavy lifting, with Brent sliding more than 8% to near USD 95 a barrel, spurred by hopes that the Iran conflict could wind down sooner. That would take pressure off inflation, ease rate hike fears and give risk assets the breathing room they've been missing for months."

The decline in oil prices could provide further support for market confidence, particularly if it helps reduce inflationary pressures and improves expectations around future interest rate decisions.

Technology and artificial intelligence are also expected to remain important areas of focus following the elections. While political developments could influence the pace of AI infrastructure expansion, demand for computing power and investment in new technologies is expected to remain a major driver of growth.

Companies with existing data centres, reliable access to power and the necessary approvals may be better positioned to benefit from continued AI investment. Larger technology companies with stronger financial resources may also be better equipped to manage potential delays in future projects.

The election results have also brought renewed attention to the relationship between politics and major technology businesses, including Elon Musk's Tesla and SpaceX. As discussions around AI infrastructure, government contracts and business expansion continue, investors will be watching how companies navigate the changing political environment.

Despite the uncertainty that can follow major elections, historical market performance offers some perspective.

"It's also worth remembering that the S&P 500 has been higher a year after every midterm since 1946, regardless of which party came out on top," Gilbert noted.

Looking ahead, the focus is expected to shift from the immediate election results to the longer-term opportunities for businesses and the global economy.

"The months ahead will be about separating the AI companies that can build through political headwinds from those that can't," Gilbert concluded.

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Golin Mena

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