US Jobs Report: Does America's New Jobs Era Point To A December Rate Hike
America's shrinking workforce is rewriting what a strong jobs report looks like, and October's 165,000 new jobs, nearly three times forecasts, show a labour market hot enough to push the Federal Reserve into a December rate hike, affirms the CEO ofdeVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory organisations.
The comments from Nigel Green come as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that payrolls rose by 165,000 last month, well ahead of forecasts of 59,000, while unemployment fell to 4.1%.
AdvertisementOctober's jump follows almost two years in which payrolls averaged roughly 35,000 a month, with seven months of outright losses.
Yet unemployment barely moved, as the labour force shrank by close to a million in a year and participation slid to 61.8% by September.
October's data removes much of the Fed's case for patience. Chair Kevin Warsh has already described the labour market as consistent with maximum employment, leaving inflation as the committee's central concern.
The Fed hiked in September for the first time in three years, to 3.75% to 4%, then held in October with two policymakers pushing for more.
Before today's figures, markets put the chance of another quarter point rise when officials meet on 8 and 9 December at roughly 70%.
Democrats seized both the House and the Senate on Tuesday after a campaign fought on the cost of living, and Wall Street posted one of its strongest post-election sessions in decades the next day.
Long-term unemployment, meanwhile, rose by 495,000 between January 2025 and September, and the average jobless spell stretched to 24.8 weeks.
The report also lands a day after tech stocks suffered their worst session since March 2020, as investors reassessed the pace of AI spending.
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