CEE & CCA Week Ahead: Polish GDP And Regional Inflation Data

(MENAFN- ING) Poland: GDP, inflation and current account data due on Friday

Friday brings the release of the 3Q26 GDP flash estimate, final October CPI and September current account data. According to our estimates, GDP growth moderated to 3.4% YoY from 4.1% YoY in 2Q26. Although the GDP breakdown will not be published until the end of the month, we forecast that the slowdown in economic growth reflected softer consumption, as higher fuel prices bit into households' spending power. We also expect a negative contribution from net exports, compared with a positive contribution in 2Q26. Investment activity most likely remained buoyant.

The final October CPI reading should confirm that headline inflation stood at the upper bound of the range around the central bank's 2.5% target (+/- 1 percentage point). More important than the headline figure, however, is the composition of price growth. We estimate that core inflation excluding food and energy prices moderated to below 3% YoY for the first time since March this year. This supports the National Bank of Poland's patient approach to adjusting monetary policy.

The current account deficit probably widened to 1.5% of GDP on a 12-month rolling basis after September, from 1.4% of GDP after August. We forecast a September deficit of €2380mn, compared with a negative gap of €932mn in September last year. Foreign trade continued to expand at a double-digit pace for the fourth consecutive month, with exports of goods rising by nearly 12% YoY (in € terms) and imports of goods up by nearly 15% YoY. If official data confirm our estimates, this would imply that net exports probably made a negative contribution to GDP growth.

Hungary: October inflation likely to have risen on fuel prices and clothing

The spotlight will be on inflation in Hungary next week, with October data due on Tuesday. We are still waiting for the second-round effects to show up in the data, and we believe the waiting game will continue. We expect monthly inflation of 0.4% in October, driven mainly by fuel prices and clothing, with the latter largely reflecting seasonal factors.

Services inflation is likely to remain muted on a monthly basis, providing some comfort for monetary policy, while core inflation should remain broadly stable at around 2% year-on-year. Against this backdrop, the interest rate outlook remains driven primarily by geopolitics rather than domestic factors.

Key events in CEE & CCA next week Source: Refinitiv, ING

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