Trump's Midterm Loss May Harden China Policy On Taiwan, Chips

He says the technology war will shift from the US president's impulsive decisions to permanent laws passed by Congress. He says the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware (MATCH) Act, a bipartisan bill introduced in April, would force US allies to align their export controls and target Chinese chipmakers such as Huawei Technologies and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC).

He adds that the Democrats will also repair the alliances that Trump has strained, repackaging curbs on China as a joint defense of democracies. He adds that Trump may not want to escalate tensions, but Congress will keep pushing bills on Taiwan, Xinjiang and chip export controls that force him to take a stand.

“The two US parties have long been united in containing China, with no disagreement between them. Democratic control of Congress will not ease the blockade at all, but will only change Washington's tactics for containing China,” says Jiang Tao, a Guizhou-based columnist.“The Republicans favor unilateral pressure, while the Democrats prefer to work through alliances. Their methods differ, but their goal is the same.”

“The biggest danger is that the Taiwan Strait is entering a more volatile and complex period of high risk. Of all modern US presidents, Trump has cared the least about Taiwan. He would readily sacrifice the island for his own interests,” he says.

He says that Trump, now a lame duck, will very likely overhaul his Taiwan stance after this crushing defeat and play the Taiwan card hard to win back conservative support. He says the Democrats will play up a crisis in the Taiwan Strait while the Republicans will apply aggressive pressure, pushing tensions around Taiwan to unprecedented levels.

In January this year, Congress approved a US$14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including air-defense missiles. But the White House later ordered agencies not to move the package forward, as Trump sought to open trade talks with Beijing and avoid upsetting Xi ahead of his May trip.

After that summit, Trump described arms sales to Taiwan as a negotiating chip in his dealings with China. Xi then visited the White House in September. The package, which cannot proceed until Trump formally sends it to Congress, remains on hold.

After a full-blown trade war in April and May 2025, Washington and Beijing agreed to de-escalate their trade conflict. The Trump administration wanted to sell more previous-generation graphics processing units (GPUs) to China and buy time to stockpile rare earths and critical minerals. Beijing wanted to avoid heavy US tariffs, giving Chinese manufacturers time to relocate production and explore new markets.

In 2026, the two sides kept up trade talks despite the sanctions and export controls they imposed on each other. In general, China tried not to provoke Trump and agreed to most of his requests, including increasing critical mineral supplies and buying 25 million tons of US soybeans. In return, the two sides agreed in September to extend their trade truce, which was due to expire on November 10, by two months to January 10, 2027.

“The US midterm elections are a domestic affair,” Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a regular press briefing on Wednesday.“China stands ready to continue working with the US to uphold and deliver on the important common understandings reached by the two heads of state, enhance communication, properly manage differences, expand cooperation and build a constructive relationship of strategic stability on the basis of respect, fairness and reciprocity.”

“Objectively, Trump's election setback is bad news for China. We now face not a less capable rival but a clearer-eyed one,” says Yanbian, another Shandong-based writer.“The question for the US now is not whether to contain China, but how to contain it more efficiently.”

“Trump's approach is to go it alone, use brute force and make allies pay for protection. The Democrats' approach is to build coalitions, write the rules and reshape supply chains. With the Democrats back, US competition with China will shift from crude isolation to systematic containment,” he says.